Lumifer comments on The Dice Room, Human Extinction, and Consistency of Bayesian Probability Theory

[Lumifer]

The “proportion murdered” argument says that about ⁹⁄₁₀ of all people who ever go into the Dice Room die, so your probability of dying is about ⁹⁄₁₀.

This is the classic confusion between probability and frequency, see e.g. this