Coming back to this post, I don’t understand what Eliezer means by “rationality” here. The game described isn’t the log-score game, and the input sequence is described as uncomputable (“truly random”), so I guess Solomonoff induction will also fare asymptotically worse than a human who always bets on blue. Does anyone have an idealized model of a rational agent that can “bring itself to believe that the situation is one in which it cannot predict”?
No for either of my interpretations of your question If you mean “does a test for randomness exists”, I believe there isn’t, but there are statistical tests that can catch non random sequences. If you mean “can a rational agent 100% believe the someone is random”, then no, because 100% certainty is impossible for anything.
Coming back to this post, I don’t understand what Eliezer means by “rationality” here. The game described isn’t the log-score game, and the input sequence is described as uncomputable (“truly random”), so I guess Solomonoff induction will also fare asymptotically worse than a human who always bets on blue. Does anyone have an idealized model of a rational agent that can “bring itself to believe that the situation is one in which it cannot predict”?
No for either of my interpretations of your question
If you mean “does a test for randomness exists”, I believe there isn’t, but there are statistical tests that can catch non random sequences.
If you mean “can a rational agent 100% believe the someone is random”, then no, because 100% certainty is impossible for anything.