(1/36)(1+34p0) is bounded by 1⁄36, I think a classical statistician would be happy to say that the evidence has a p-value of 1⁄36 her. Same for any test where H_0 is a composite hypothesis, you just take the supremum.
A bigger problem with your argument is that it is a fully general counter-argument against frequentists ever concluding anything. All data has to be acquired before it can be analysed statistically, all methods of acquiring data have some probability of error (in the real world) and the probability of error is always ‘unknowable’, at least in the same sense that p0 is in your argument.
You might as well say that a classical statistician would not say the sun had exploded because he would be in a state of total Cartesian doubt about everything.
For this problem, the p-value is bounded by 1⁄36 from below, that is, p-value > 1⁄36. The supremum of (1/36)(1+34p0) is 35⁄36 and the infimum is 1⁄36. Therefore, I’m not taking the supremum, actually the cartoon took the infimum, when you take the infimum you are assuming the neutrino detector measures without errors and this is a problem. The p-value, for this example, is a number between 1⁄36 and 35⁄36.
I did not understand “the big problem” with my argument…
(1/36)(1+34p0) is bounded by 1⁄36, I think a classical statistician would be happy to say that the evidence has a p-value of 1⁄36 her. Same for any test where H_0 is a composite hypothesis, you just take the supremum.
A bigger problem with your argument is that it is a fully general counter-argument against frequentists ever concluding anything. All data has to be acquired before it can be analysed statistically, all methods of acquiring data have some probability of error (in the real world) and the probability of error is always ‘unknowable’, at least in the same sense that p0 is in your argument.
You might as well say that a classical statistician would not say the sun had exploded because he would be in a state of total Cartesian doubt about everything.
For this problem, the p-value is bounded by 1⁄36 from below, that is, p-value > 1⁄36. The supremum of (1/36)(1+34p0) is 35⁄36 and the infimum is 1⁄36. Therefore, I’m not taking the supremum, actually the cartoon took the infimum, when you take the infimum you are assuming the neutrino detector measures without errors and this is a problem. The p-value, for this example, is a number between 1⁄36 and 35⁄36.
I did not understand “the big problem” with my argument…