Yes, I suspect most parents will probably feel like you. Having kids with a big group of people is just going to be too weird for most people.
You can see from Tsvi’s chart that the gains from selection among just two people are already pretty large: probably 1.5-2 standard deviations across a large panel of traits. So if someone manages to get the protocol working you can still benefit from it even if you only want to use it for yourself and your wife.
But it’s worth pointing out that this is not that much different than having grand kids or great-grandkids; you’ll share about these same amount of DNA with them as you would with children you have with 3-7 other people. So if you’re ok with the idea of grand kids this shouldn’t be THAT weird other than the “skipping generations” part.
That comparison misses something crucial, which is the density of genetic material passed on. Each generation represents a dilution of the first parent’s genetic material with non-kin, but also has the potential for increased numbers of descendants at each generation. By the time your family would be producing your great-grandkids, they’d have the potential to have 2 dozen or more of your direct descendants.
With chromosomal selection you’re trading off a massive amount of genetic saturation: essentially getting the percentage genetic inheritance of a great grandchild without the potential for the massive “payoff” of having numerous descendants sharing portions of your genetics.
Putting it like that, it’s no surprise that people are going to feel repulsed by the idea...and that’s before we even get into the part where the chromosomes which don’t get selected are going to be instantly “lost” in a single generation. That’s made more spooky by the fact that we won’t know where demonstrably inheritable traits like “Has his mother’s eyes; has his dad’s smile; has temper/melancholy/mood similarities to one or the other parent” lie on the chromosomes. I wouldn’t be surprised if the idea that you’d be risking losing something important like that is going to be a deal breaker for a lot of people.
That’s only a downside if the other people in the pool don’t plan on having kids.
Also, is your goal really just to maximize the amount of your genetic material in the future? If so just focus on cloning yourself as much as possible.
I personally like some things about myself and dislike other things. The whole point of embryo selection or any other genetic engineering is to have kids that are better than me. I’d like them to have some of the traits I admire about myself, but other than that I’m not very picky.
Maximizing the amount of your genetic material in the (near) future is my null hypothesis. I don’t think it’s totally accurate, but in the absence of a good understanding of which parts of our genetic material produce the non-quantifiable traits we care about: things like the shape of one’s smile, personality, taste in food, overall “mood”, then I expect people to be reluctant to trade off genetic density at rates greater than ~25-60%
The alternative extreme hypothesis would be a “parent” who wants to maximize their “children’s” traits to the point where they’d prefer 0% genetic inheritance if the resultant child would be superior in some respect.
I’ve thought about this more and I don’t think the downside you’re pointing at exists unless the members of the pool have significantly fewer children than you do.
Suppose there are N members in the pool and you contribute 1/N to the children in each pool. Then the next generation will still have the same amount of your DNA as they would if you conceived normally unless you have more children than other people in the pool.
Genetic density doesn’t really matter if your goal is maximizing the amount of your DNA out there.
Also, if you DO care about maximizing the amount of your DNA out there, have you considered donating to a sperm bank?
Who says you contribute to the pool at the same rate you’d contribute to your own children? Surely other people in the pool would have different priorities than you, wouldn’t they? What if there are N people in the pool and you contribute 1/5N to the children in each pool?
Add that to the fact, that maybe you only have one standout chromosome, and you could easily see a situation where genetic analysis of the population in your family + your pool shows a sudden disappearance of 90% of your genes with a proliferation of 5% of your genes. Is that equivalent to having children? Some people might say it’s not.
Also, yes, obviously if you were trying to maximize your genetic genetic density you’d do all of the above: contribute to pools, clone yourself a couple times, have children normally (or with chromosomal selection), and contribute to a sperm banks. That’d be the route to take if you view maximizing genetic density as a terminal goal.
I think the reality is that people have some instinctual need to see more of themselves and their loved ones in the world, and that a learned person would use genetic inheritance as a proxy for this emotional non-quantifiable goal. I also suspect it’s a threshold goal, and not a maximization goal, which is why people want some number N of children and not “as many children as I can afford to have”.
Well it depends on how large the pool is, but unless other members of the pool have a significantly higher set of polygenic scores than you it’s pretty likely you’ll have roughly equal contributions. I suppose I’d have to do the math to see exactly how big of an influence that would have.
I also suspect it’s a threshold goal, and not a maximization goal, which is why people want some number N of children and not “as many children as I can afford to have”.
Interesting hypothesis. This matches fairly well with my own observations, though that might just be because there is no way for parents to have a quarter of their DNA be in any of their children.
One interesting test might be to see if grandparents favor grandchildren with more of their DNA than ones with less, since there can be variance among grandchildren and not among children.
Yes, I suspect most parents will probably feel like you. Having kids with a big group of people is just going to be too weird for most people.
You can see from Tsvi’s chart that the gains from selection among just two people are already pretty large: probably 1.5-2 standard deviations across a large panel of traits. So if someone manages to get the protocol working you can still benefit from it even if you only want to use it for yourself and your wife.
But it’s worth pointing out that this is not that much different than having grand kids or great-grandkids; you’ll share about these same amount of DNA with them as you would with children you have with 3-7 other people. So if you’re ok with the idea of grand kids this shouldn’t be THAT weird other than the “skipping generations” part.
That comparison misses something crucial, which is the density of genetic material passed on. Each generation represents a dilution of the first parent’s genetic material with non-kin, but also has the potential for increased numbers of descendants at each generation. By the time your family would be producing your great-grandkids, they’d have the potential to have 2 dozen or more of your direct descendants.
With chromosomal selection you’re trading off a massive amount of genetic saturation: essentially getting the percentage genetic inheritance of a great grandchild without the potential for the massive “payoff” of having numerous descendants sharing portions of your genetics.
Putting it like that, it’s no surprise that people are going to feel repulsed by the idea...and that’s before we even get into the part where the chromosomes which don’t get selected are going to be instantly “lost” in a single generation. That’s made more spooky by the fact that we won’t know where demonstrably inheritable traits like “Has his mother’s eyes; has his dad’s smile; has temper/melancholy/mood similarities to one or the other parent” lie on the chromosomes. I wouldn’t be surprised if the idea that you’d be risking losing something important like that is going to be a deal breaker for a lot of people.
That’s only a downside if the other people in the pool don’t plan on having kids.
Also, is your goal really just to maximize the amount of your genetic material in the future? If so just focus on cloning yourself as much as possible.
I personally like some things about myself and dislike other things. The whole point of embryo selection or any other genetic engineering is to have kids that are better than me. I’d like them to have some of the traits I admire about myself, but other than that I’m not very picky.
Maximizing the amount of your genetic material in the (near) future is my null hypothesis. I don’t think it’s totally accurate, but in the absence of a good understanding of which parts of our genetic material produce the non-quantifiable traits we care about: things like the shape of one’s smile, personality, taste in food, overall “mood”, then I expect people to be reluctant to trade off genetic density at rates greater than ~25-60%
The alternative extreme hypothesis would be a “parent” who wants to maximize their “children’s” traits to the point where they’d prefer 0% genetic inheritance if the resultant child would be superior in some respect.
I’ve thought about this more and I don’t think the downside you’re pointing at exists unless the members of the pool have significantly fewer children than you do.
Suppose there are N members in the pool and you contribute 1/N to the children in each pool. Then the next generation will still have the same amount of your DNA as they would if you conceived normally unless you have more children than other people in the pool.
Genetic density doesn’t really matter if your goal is maximizing the amount of your DNA out there.
Also, if you DO care about maximizing the amount of your DNA out there, have you considered donating to a sperm bank?
Who says you contribute to the pool at the same rate you’d contribute to your own children? Surely other people in the pool would have different priorities than you, wouldn’t they? What if there are N people in the pool and you contribute 1/5N to the children in each pool?
Add that to the fact, that maybe you only have one standout chromosome, and you could easily see a situation where genetic analysis of the population in your family + your pool shows a sudden disappearance of 90% of your genes with a proliferation of 5% of your genes. Is that equivalent to having children? Some people might say it’s not.
Also, yes, obviously if you were trying to maximize your genetic genetic density you’d do all of the above: contribute to pools, clone yourself a couple times, have children normally (or with chromosomal selection), and contribute to a sperm banks. That’d be the route to take if you view maximizing genetic density as a terminal goal.
I think the reality is that people have some instinctual need to see more of themselves and their loved ones in the world, and that a learned person would use genetic inheritance as a proxy for this emotional non-quantifiable goal. I also suspect it’s a threshold goal, and not a maximization goal, which is why people want some number N of children and not “as many children as I can afford to have”.
Well it depends on how large the pool is, but unless other members of the pool have a significantly higher set of polygenic scores than you it’s pretty likely you’ll have roughly equal contributions. I suppose I’d have to do the math to see exactly how big of an influence that would have.
Interesting hypothesis. This matches fairly well with my own observations, though that might just be because there is no way for parents to have a quarter of their DNA be in any of their children.
One interesting test might be to see if grandparents favor grandchildren with more of their DNA than ones with less, since there can be variance among grandchildren and not among children.