No. The arguments look like a relatively small amount of ambiguous evidence, but what evidence is there doesn’t look good.
“If I thought the chance of AGI doom was smaller than the chance of asteroid doom, I would be working on asteroid deflection” is a common sentiment. People aren’t claiming tiny probabilities. They are claiming that its a default failure mode. Something that will happen (Or at least more likely than not) unless specifically prevented.
No. The arguments look like a relatively small amount of ambiguous evidence, but what evidence is there doesn’t look good.
“If I thought the chance of AGI doom was smaller than the chance of asteroid doom, I would be working on asteroid deflection” is a common sentiment. People aren’t claiming tiny probabilities. They are claiming that its a default failure mode. Something that will happen (Or at least more likely than not) unless specifically prevented.