I think the brief answer to this point is that it is very important to define the hypothesis precisely, to avoid being confused in the way you describe.
Applying that lesson to Earl Warren, we can say that he failed to distinguish between motive for big-sabotage and motive for little-sabotage. Lack of little-sabotage events is evidence in favor of motive-for-big-sabotage (and for no-motive-to-sabotage: with the benefit of hindsight, we know this was the true state of the world). But unclear phrasing by Warren made it sound like he believed absence of little-sabotage was evidence of motive-to-little-sabotage, which is a nonsensical position.
Given the low probability of big-sabotage (even after incorporating the evidence Warren puts forth), it’s pretty clear that the argument for Warren’s suggested policy (Japanese-American internment) depended pretty heavily on the confused thinking created by this equivocation.
I think the brief answer to this point is that it is very important to define the hypothesis precisely, to avoid being confused in the way you describe.
Applying that lesson to Earl Warren, we can say that he failed to distinguish between motive for big-sabotage and motive for little-sabotage. Lack of little-sabotage events is evidence in favor of motive-for-big-sabotage (and for no-motive-to-sabotage: with the benefit of hindsight, we know this was the true state of the world). But unclear phrasing by Warren made it sound like he believed absence of little-sabotage was evidence of motive-to-little-sabotage, which is a nonsensical position.
Given the low probability of big-sabotage (even after incorporating the evidence Warren puts forth), it’s pretty clear that the argument for Warren’s suggested policy (Japanese-American internment) depended pretty heavily on the confused thinking created by this equivocation.