More acuratly, “absence of evidence you would expect to see if the statement is true” is evidence of absence.
If there’s no evidence you’d expect if the statement is true, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
For example, if I tell you I’ve eaten cornflakes for breakfast, no matter whether or not the statement is true, you won’t have any evidence in either direction (except for the statement itself) unless you’re willing to investigate the matter (like, asking my roommates). In this case, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
Now, suppose we meet in person and I tell you I’ve eaten garlic just an hour before. You’d expect evidence if that statement is true (bad breath), in this case, absence of evidence is evidence of absence.
More acuratly, “absence of evidence you would expect to see if the statement is true” is evidence of absence.
If there’s no evidence you’d expect if the statement is true, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
For example, if I tell you I’ve eaten cornflakes for breakfast, no matter whether or not the statement is true, you won’t have any evidence in either direction (except for the statement itself) unless you’re willing to investigate the matter (like, asking my roommates). In this case, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
Now, suppose we meet in person and I tell you I’ve eaten garlic just an hour before. You’d expect evidence if that statement is true (bad breath), in this case, absence of evidence is evidence of absence.