If we like where we are and can’t be very confident of where we may go, maybe we shouldn’t take the risk and just stop changing. Or at least create central powers sufficient to control change worldwide, and only allow changes that are widely approved. This may be a proposal worth considering, but AI isn’t the fundamental problem here either.
I’m curious what you (Hanson) think(s) *is* the fundamental problem here if not AI?
Context: It seems to me that Toby Ord is right that the largest existential risks (AI being number one) are all anthropormphic risks, rather than natural risks. They also seem to be risks associated with the development of new technologies (AI, biologically engineered pandemics, (distant third and fourth:) nuclear risk, climate change). Any large unknown existential risk also seems likely to be a risk resulting from the development of a new technology.
So given that, I would think AI *is* the fundamental problem.
Maybe we can solve the AI problems with the right incentive structures for the humans making the AI, in which case perhaps one might think the fundamental problem is the incentive structure or the institutions that exist to shape those incentives, but I don’t find this persuasive. This would be like saying that the problem is not nuclear weapons, it’s that the Soviet Union would use them to cause harm. (Maybe this just feels like a strawman of your view in which case feel to ignore this part.)
I’m curious what you (Hanson) think(s) *is* the fundamental problem here if not AI?
Context: It seems to me that Toby Ord is right that the largest existential risks (AI being number one) are all anthropormphic risks, rather than natural risks. They also seem to be risks associated with the development of new technologies (AI, biologically engineered pandemics, (distant third and fourth:) nuclear risk, climate change). Any large unknown existential risk also seems likely to be a risk resulting from the development of a new technology.
So given that, I would think AI *is* the fundamental problem.
Maybe we can solve the AI problems with the right incentive structures for the humans making the AI, in which case perhaps one might think the fundamental problem is the incentive structure or the institutions that exist to shape those incentives, but I don’t find this persuasive. This would be like saying that the problem is not nuclear weapons, it’s that the Soviet Union would use them to cause harm. (Maybe this just feels like a strawman of your view in which case feel to ignore this part.)