I agree, you still probably run the experiment. At least it codifies something which was previously implicit or “folk-knowledge” among the scientists. G-complex theory is a (possibly wrong) precise statement of existing intuitions. I would now say that Dr. Y has made a gears-level explanation where one did not previously exist.
If all we care about is gears-level, then assigning high credence to Dr. Y’s explanation after the experiment succeeds is a good thing. This is largely true in science; the theory deserves the credit for the explicit prediction.
However, if all we care about is accuracy, something has gone wrong. People are likely to assign too much credence to G-complex theory. Everyone familiar with the area already knew how the experiment would turn out, without G-complex theory.
A possible remedy is to gather predictions from other scientists before performing the experiments. The other scientists might report low endorsement of G-complex theory, but expect the spike.
If everyone expects a spike and it doesn’t happen, you now know that it’s really a pretty big deal.
I agree, you still probably run the experiment. At least it codifies something which was previously implicit or “folk-knowledge” among the scientists. G-complex theory is a (possibly wrong) precise statement of existing intuitions. I would now say that Dr. Y has made a gears-level explanation where one did not previously exist.
If all we care about is gears-level, then assigning high credence to Dr. Y’s explanation after the experiment succeeds is a good thing. This is largely true in science; the theory deserves the credit for the explicit prediction.
However, if all we care about is accuracy, something has gone wrong. People are likely to assign too much credence to G-complex theory. Everyone familiar with the area already knew how the experiment would turn out, without G-complex theory.
A possible remedy is to gather predictions from other scientists before performing the experiments. The other scientists might report low endorsement of G-complex theory, but expect the spike.
If everyone expects a spike and it doesn’t happen, you now know that it’s really a pretty big deal.