I do still disagree with you somewhat, because I think that people going through a crisis of faith are prone to flailing around and taking naive actions that they would have reconsidered after a week or month of actually thinking through the implications of their new belief. Trying to maximize utility while making a major update is safe for ideal Bayesian reasoners, but it fails badly for actual humans.
Ah, yeah I agree with this observation—and it could be good to just assume things add up to normality as a general defense against people rapidly taking naive actions. Scarcity bias is a thing after all and if you get into a mindset where now is the time to act, it’s really hard to prevent yourself from acting irrationally.
Ah, yeah I agree with this observation—and it could be good to just assume things add up to normality as a general defense against people rapidly taking naive actions. Scarcity bias is a thing after all and if you get into a mindset where now is the time to act, it’s really hard to prevent yourself from acting irrationally.
Huzzah, convergence! I appreciate the points you’ve made.