Thanks for the very helpful commenting instructions! Magical markup powers unlocked! I have upvoted your very useful info on this.
As for pitting cryonics against a chthonic fried egg, I’m not sure that proves that cryonics has a decent chance of working, just that it is not completely implausible. I would be more interested in hearing more about what research has been done in this field, although I understand that is a time consuming task and I don’t expect for you to do any research in that area for me (although of course no objections if you wish to).
I am curious why you think it is the best bet given the cost. For example, it probably makes sense as a strategy for someone who is a.) reasonably wealthy and b.) knows they are likely to die very soon, but that’s because the opportunity cost will be greatly lower for such a person. Since they already have the money, they wouldn’t have to sacrifice as much in their (certain) current life to try cryonics for an (uncertain) future life. Also, being about to die very soon makes the opportunity cost of giving up investigation of other options considerably lower.
Still, I don’t think everyone has the same opportunity costs since not everyone lives the same life. I think learning a lot more about life extension is my best possible option, which should then be followed by investing accordingly. I think your comment reflects the feeling that cryonics has an image problem, and I would agree with that. I also don’t think it should have as much of an image problem as it does, even though I currently don’t have any reason to believe it will be overwhelmingly successful. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with trying whatever seems to be the best option given your own opportunity costs.
I haven’t done much detailed research. “Cryonics works” is the default given the history of medicine and what Alcor says; there could be a flaw or an outright lie in the case for cryonics that makes it deviate -I am not an expert. But the case against cryonics is non-existent. Why would experts not debunk it, if it were false?
On cost:
Robin Hanson has a calculation saying it’s worth it . I haven’t checked. Morendil argues that the cost (a few $100 per year) is very low relative to other expenses. Even if both arguments are false, cryonics still looks developed-country-cheap.
It’s a bad strategy for someone who’ll die soon, because they can’t get life insurance. Cryonics is cheaper when young and healthy.
On opportunity cost:
Research time doesn’t look all that limited. (If it does, why not sign up for cryonics with as little research as possible?) I’m not sure what other costs you’re talking about.
Life extension is a very good idea, yes. But it’s not incompatible with cryonics (unlike mummification and graveyard eggs); in fact it helps, because cryonics is best if you deanimate late (cryonics improves with time, and the longer your life expectancy the cheaper insurance gets).
If life extension techniques look so incredibly good that you put every cent and second in them, sure, go ahead and be a hero—but that applies to every expense, not just cryonics.
Thanks! Upvoted since your responses are highly relevant to my questions.
I’m first looking at the arguments for the science of cryonics that Alcor gives. I do not have much expectation that I can judge all their claims to be valid or invalid yet, but I will give my general impression of the 3 main premises they present on their site here:
1.) Life can be stopped and restarted if cell structure and chemistry are preserved sufficiently well.
Arguments for this are point are based on currently verified procedures such as reviving people after their heart stops, people being revived long after drowning in cold water, freezing embryos, etc. I assume this is the reason you say “cryonics works” based on the history of medicine. I would change this to say that the likeliehood of cryonics working is greater in the universe we live in, because we can now revive people that would once have been irretrievably dead, so it is not inconceivable that people could be revived in the future from some states that would be considered irretrievably dead today. I have no disagreement with this point. I would note that the ‘some’ in the previous sentence is important since it means that it likely matters what strategy is used.
2) Vitrification (not freezing) can preserve biological structure very well.
This is an interesting argument and not one that I was previously aware of, nor of the fact that kidneys have been usable after vitrification or that a cat brain briefly regained EEG capability after vitrification. I thought the pictures were very helpful in showing the structural improvements Alcor says have been accomplished in this procedure, and this increases my confidence that this procedure could preserve information. I will need to look into this determine in more detail what we know about this process. Alcor is pretty clear that the toxicity of the procedure prevents brains from being revived this way today, so I definitely want to try to understand that aspect a little more. It is good to know that the process has improved in preserving visual structure over time, however.
3) Methods for repairing structure at the molecular level can now be foreseen.
True, although I’m not sure if this is an argument so much for cryonics in particular as for finding the most successful strategy for preserving information about that structure in some way. Cryonics may or may not be the best way to accomplish this, and if the best way is mutually exclusive to this method, I think that would be an important piece of information in making the most rational decision.
I will need to look at the other articles some more in the future. I skimmed over them but have not yet had the time to think them over and formulate a response. Thanks for responding to my questions about the available research in the field, the costs, and the opportunity cost.
On preservation methods: gwern has an article on plastination. It’s compatible with cryonics in theory, but not currently in practice.
I distrust “this improves chances of revival with method X”-type reasoning, though. The argument for revival is more like “A huge advance among the many possible ones, only a few of which we can currently foresee” than “Scan and upload”. This encourages catch-all preservation methods rather than methods that optimize for a particular kind of revival.
So are you saying that you don’t think it matters if one method is better, as in having more known working components? I’m not sure I understand what method you are favoring here.
Revival method, or preservation method? I’m saying that the revival method that will in fact be used will probably be none of the methods we can foresee (scan and upload, molecular repair, light molecular repair plus organ printing, growing a new body) - not because there’s anything wrong with those revival methods, just because I expect a lot of currently unknown candidates to be developed.
This implies that we should use methods that minimize maximal corruption—corrupt connections a bit but not too much, corrupt cell structure a bit but not too much, corrupt ease of reversal (thawing is possible, unplastinating isn’t) a bit but not too much. That way, when we try to revive patients using a currently unknown revival method, the currently unknown parameters it cares about won’t be too compromised.
If we could predict the revival method well, then we should pick preservation methods that minimize corruption of the parameters it cares about, and only them. For example, if we’re pretty sure the method will involve destructive scanning, we should try very hard to preserve information exactly, but can go wild with other kinds of damage if they help with information preservation.
I guess to me it seems very important to figure out what would work in terms of both preservation and revival. I see that it could work out to just preserve the brain as well as possible—in some future universes we might imagine, this could work out very well. But I would be more inclined to think this was an easier choice if some of the uncertainty could be removed. I don’t at all mind if other people want to take this risk for themselves, and I hope it works out well for them. But I like to know more about a situation if I’m considering it for myself. I am very risk averse, and I can’t help but worry this could possibly take money I might need later for a medical emergency and then I would die and cryonics wouldn’t work for me. Or it would succeed, but those reviving me would be incredibly hostile. I want to live a long time—but I’m really, really hoping that much of that isn’t also while suffering inconceivable pain. It’s not that I think success is impossible; it’s that I like to know what I’m getting into, as much as is humanly possible.
It’s a bad strategy for someone who’ll die soon, because they can’t get life insurance. Cryonics is cheaper when young and healthy.
Life insurance is more expensive than paying in cash. If that weren’t true, no one could make money selling life insurance. Yes it amortizes the cost over time, and amortizes the risk over the population but that does not reduce the cost of it. The opportunity cost of cryo-preservation is the same whether you buy insurance or not.
Thanks for the very helpful commenting instructions! Magical markup powers unlocked! I have upvoted your very useful info on this.
As for pitting cryonics against a chthonic fried egg, I’m not sure that proves that cryonics has a decent chance of working, just that it is not completely implausible. I would be more interested in hearing more about what research has been done in this field, although I understand that is a time consuming task and I don’t expect for you to do any research in that area for me (although of course no objections if you wish to).
I am curious why you think it is the best bet given the cost. For example, it probably makes sense as a strategy for someone who is a.) reasonably wealthy and b.) knows they are likely to die very soon, but that’s because the opportunity cost will be greatly lower for such a person. Since they already have the money, they wouldn’t have to sacrifice as much in their (certain) current life to try cryonics for an (uncertain) future life. Also, being about to die very soon makes the opportunity cost of giving up investigation of other options considerably lower.
Still, I don’t think everyone has the same opportunity costs since not everyone lives the same life. I think learning a lot more about life extension is my best possible option, which should then be followed by investing accordingly. I think your comment reflects the feeling that cryonics has an image problem, and I would agree with that. I also don’t think it should have as much of an image problem as it does, even though I currently don’t have any reason to believe it will be overwhelmingly successful. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with trying whatever seems to be the best option given your own opportunity costs.
On probability it’ll work:
I haven’t done much detailed research. “Cryonics works” is the default given the history of medicine and what Alcor says; there could be a flaw or an outright lie in the case for cryonics that makes it deviate -I am not an expert. But the case against cryonics is non-existent. Why would experts not debunk it, if it were false?
On cost:
Robin Hanson has a calculation saying it’s worth it . I haven’t checked. Morendil argues that the cost (a few $100 per year) is very low relative to other expenses. Even if both arguments are false, cryonics still looks developed-country-cheap.
It’s a bad strategy for someone who’ll die soon, because they can’t get life insurance. Cryonics is cheaper when young and healthy.
On opportunity cost:
Research time doesn’t look all that limited. (If it does, why not sign up for cryonics with as little research as possible?) I’m not sure what other costs you’re talking about.
Life extension is a very good idea, yes. But it’s not incompatible with cryonics (unlike mummification and graveyard eggs); in fact it helps, because cryonics is best if you deanimate late (cryonics improves with time, and the longer your life expectancy the cheaper insurance gets).
If life extension techniques look so incredibly good that you put every cent and second in them, sure, go ahead and be a hero—but that applies to every expense, not just cryonics.
Thanks! Upvoted since your responses are highly relevant to my questions.
I’m first looking at the arguments for the science of cryonics that Alcor gives. I do not have much expectation that I can judge all their claims to be valid or invalid yet, but I will give my general impression of the 3 main premises they present on their site here:
1.) Life can be stopped and restarted if cell structure and chemistry are preserved sufficiently well.
Arguments for this are point are based on currently verified procedures such as reviving people after their heart stops, people being revived long after drowning in cold water, freezing embryos, etc. I assume this is the reason you say “cryonics works” based on the history of medicine. I would change this to say that the likeliehood of cryonics working is greater in the universe we live in, because we can now revive people that would once have been irretrievably dead, so it is not inconceivable that people could be revived in the future from some states that would be considered irretrievably dead today. I have no disagreement with this point. I would note that the ‘some’ in the previous sentence is important since it means that it likely matters what strategy is used.
2) Vitrification (not freezing) can preserve biological structure very well.
This is an interesting argument and not one that I was previously aware of, nor of the fact that kidneys have been usable after vitrification or that a cat brain briefly regained EEG capability after vitrification. I thought the pictures were very helpful in showing the structural improvements Alcor says have been accomplished in this procedure, and this increases my confidence that this procedure could preserve information. I will need to look into this determine in more detail what we know about this process. Alcor is pretty clear that the toxicity of the procedure prevents brains from being revived this way today, so I definitely want to try to understand that aspect a little more. It is good to know that the process has improved in preserving visual structure over time, however.
3) Methods for repairing structure at the molecular level can now be foreseen.
True, although I’m not sure if this is an argument so much for cryonics in particular as for finding the most successful strategy for preserving information about that structure in some way. Cryonics may or may not be the best way to accomplish this, and if the best way is mutually exclusive to this method, I think that would be an important piece of information in making the most rational decision.
I will need to look at the other articles some more in the future. I skimmed over them but have not yet had the time to think them over and formulate a response. Thanks for responding to my questions about the available research in the field, the costs, and the opportunity cost.
On preservation methods: gwern has an article on plastination. It’s compatible with cryonics in theory, but not currently in practice.
I distrust “this improves chances of revival with method X”-type reasoning, though. The argument for revival is more like “A huge advance among the many possible ones, only a few of which we can currently foresee” than “Scan and upload”. This encourages catch-all preservation methods rather than methods that optimize for a particular kind of revival.
So are you saying that you don’t think it matters if one method is better, as in having more known working components? I’m not sure I understand what method you are favoring here.
Revival method, or preservation method? I’m saying that the revival method that will in fact be used will probably be none of the methods we can foresee (scan and upload, molecular repair, light molecular repair plus organ printing, growing a new body) - not because there’s anything wrong with those revival methods, just because I expect a lot of currently unknown candidates to be developed.
This implies that we should use methods that minimize maximal corruption—corrupt connections a bit but not too much, corrupt cell structure a bit but not too much, corrupt ease of reversal (thawing is possible, unplastinating isn’t) a bit but not too much. That way, when we try to revive patients using a currently unknown revival method, the currently unknown parameters it cares about won’t be too compromised.
If we could predict the revival method well, then we should pick preservation methods that minimize corruption of the parameters it cares about, and only them. For example, if we’re pretty sure the method will involve destructive scanning, we should try very hard to preserve information exactly, but can go wild with other kinds of damage if they help with information preservation.
Okay. I see what you were saying now.
I guess to me it seems very important to figure out what would work in terms of both preservation and revival. I see that it could work out to just preserve the brain as well as possible—in some future universes we might imagine, this could work out very well. But I would be more inclined to think this was an easier choice if some of the uncertainty could be removed. I don’t at all mind if other people want to take this risk for themselves, and I hope it works out well for them. But I like to know more about a situation if I’m considering it for myself. I am very risk averse, and I can’t help but worry this could possibly take money I might need later for a medical emergency and then I would die and cryonics wouldn’t work for me. Or it would succeed, but those reviving me would be incredibly hostile. I want to live a long time—but I’m really, really hoping that much of that isn’t also while suffering inconceivable pain. It’s not that I think success is impossible; it’s that I like to know what I’m getting into, as much as is humanly possible.
Life insurance is more expensive than paying in cash. If that weren’t true, no one could make money selling life insurance. Yes it amortizes the cost over time, and amortizes the risk over the population but that does not reduce the cost of it. The opportunity cost of cryo-preservation is the same whether you buy insurance or not.
People who are young and healthy usually end up becoming people who are likely to die soon.
I’m guessing that’s why it’s a good strategy to get cryonics when you’re young and healthy.
Many of the rates quoted are for term life insurance, which expires and becomes worthless after a certain number of years.