The cell phone evidence and the changing stories are what gives me reason to a probability of guilty to S and K above .05. (See my comment for my probabilities). The effect of this evidence was mitigated for me by:
Their likely intoxication during this period.
Police coercion leading to confusion about the events.
It looks like a lot of what the pro-guilty site claims ended up being unproven rumors not produced in trial, this makes it very unclear to me what story S and K actually ended up giving in trial. Since the site exaggerates other claims their claims about the cell phones and the stories can’t be fully trusted.
You weren’t troubled by the lack of motive and the fact that after covering up her involvement in a crime but intentionally leaving evidence of Guede’s presence Knox went on to point the finger at someone who couldn’t have been involved after being coerced by the police? Shoot, I can’t figure out why Knox, if she was guilty, wouldn’t have just stayed at Sollecito’s until someone else discovered the body.
What I can’t understand is, if all three were in it together, given the evidence against Guede, why he didn’t rat out the other two in exchange for a reduced sentence. I’d be amazed if the Italian legal system doesn’t cut such deals, and I’d be amazed if the prosecutors didn’t try to get him to rat out the other two. If they were actually involved, the odds that he’d turn on them in that situation seem well over .9.
Hmm, thinking back, I didn’t consider motive too closely. I rather got caught up in the evidence of Amanda’s evasion. In retrospect, this would lower my probabilities.
...and the fact that after covering up her involvement in a crime but intentionally leaving evidence of Guede’s presence Knox went on to point the finger at someone who couldn’t have been involved after being coerced by the police?
I didn’t judge that evidence against Guede was left intentionally; I could easily have missed details indicating this. Knox’s fingering of Lumumba seemed to me to be a natural part of a collection of inconsistent attempts to establish an alibi and deflect suspicion.
FYI, I’ve updated in your direction since my first response. Those phone call lengths are driving me nuts.
Part of the suspicious behavior was that Knox didn’t flush the toilet (where Guede had used it) the morning she returned. Also, Knox and Sollectio’s ‘bloody’ foot prints had to be luminaled when right next to them were Guede’s visible foot prints. And over all, the shear amount of physical evidence against Guede compared to the near total lack of physical evidence against the other two suggests that if there was a clean up they really cared not at all about Guede getting caught. Which is believable, but they did too good of a job. They’re intoxicated the night of, come back a few hours later and can distinguish all of their prints from all of Guede’s? And they didn’t think he had left enough physical evidence (on the victim) that they thought they should leave the toilet unflushed? They appear to have done a really good job cleaning up and a really bad job getting their story straight- which seems inconsistent to me.
Though come to think of it I’m not really sure why the toilet wasn’t flushed at all. If Guede used the bathroom before joining Knox and Sallecito killing Kercher, why wouldn’t he flush it? Hearing the screaming is actually a plausible explanation for this. Not flushing would make sense if Guede was trying to provide evidence for the story he was planning on telling but that seems way to smart for him. I also don’t know why that would be his planned explanation if he was working with Knox and Sallecito.
Part of the problem is that the details of what happened in the room were never released in English (and that might be a good thing) so there may be good reason to think the evidence indicated three people were involved, etc.
there may be good reason to think the evidence indicated three people were involved, etc.
This seems to be a major focus of the pro-guilt site, though it isn’t really backed up at any level of detail. Were it true, it would increase the probability that K and S were involved, but still far short of beyond a reasonable doubt, I would think.
The cell phone evidence and the changing stories are what gives me reason to a probability of guilty to S and K above .05. (See my comment for my probabilities). The effect of this evidence was mitigated for me by:
Their likely intoxication during this period.
Police coercion leading to confusion about the events.
It looks like a lot of what the pro-guilty site claims ended up being unproven rumors not produced in trial, this makes it very unclear to me what story S and K actually ended up giving in trial. Since the site exaggerates other claims their claims about the cell phones and the stories can’t be fully trusted.
You weren’t troubled by the lack of motive and the fact that after covering up her involvement in a crime but intentionally leaving evidence of Guede’s presence Knox went on to point the finger at someone who couldn’t have been involved after being coerced by the police? Shoot, I can’t figure out why Knox, if she was guilty, wouldn’t have just stayed at Sollecito’s until someone else discovered the body.
What I can’t understand is, if all three were in it together, given the evidence against Guede, why he didn’t rat out the other two in exchange for a reduced sentence. I’d be amazed if the Italian legal system doesn’t cut such deals, and I’d be amazed if the prosecutors didn’t try to get him to rat out the other two. If they were actually involved, the odds that he’d turn on them in that situation seem well over .9.
Hmm, thinking back, I didn’t consider motive too closely. I rather got caught up in the evidence of Amanda’s evasion. In retrospect, this would lower my probabilities.
I didn’t judge that evidence against Guede was left intentionally; I could easily have missed details indicating this. Knox’s fingering of Lumumba seemed to me to be a natural part of a collection of inconsistent attempts to establish an alibi and deflect suspicion.
FYI, I’ve updated in your direction since my first response. Those phone call lengths are driving me nuts.
Part of the suspicious behavior was that Knox didn’t flush the toilet (where Guede had used it) the morning she returned. Also, Knox and Sollectio’s ‘bloody’ foot prints had to be luminaled when right next to them were Guede’s visible foot prints. And over all, the shear amount of physical evidence against Guede compared to the near total lack of physical evidence against the other two suggests that if there was a clean up they really cared not at all about Guede getting caught. Which is believable, but they did too good of a job. They’re intoxicated the night of, come back a few hours later and can distinguish all of their prints from all of Guede’s? And they didn’t think he had left enough physical evidence (on the victim) that they thought they should leave the toilet unflushed? They appear to have done a really good job cleaning up and a really bad job getting their story straight- which seems inconsistent to me.
Though come to think of it I’m not really sure why the toilet wasn’t flushed at all. If Guede used the bathroom before joining Knox and Sallecito killing Kercher, why wouldn’t he flush it? Hearing the screaming is actually a plausible explanation for this. Not flushing would make sense if Guede was trying to provide evidence for the story he was planning on telling but that seems way to smart for him. I also don’t know why that would be his planned explanation if he was working with Knox and Sallecito.
Part of the problem is that the details of what happened in the room were never released in English (and that might be a good thing) so there may be good reason to think the evidence indicated three people were involved, etc.
This seems to be a major focus of the pro-guilt site, though it isn’t really backed up at any level of detail. Were it true, it would increase the probability that K and S were involved, but still far short of beyond a reasonable doubt, I would think.