I was unfamiliar with the case. I came up with:
1 − 20%
2 − 20%
3 − 96%
4 - probably in the same direction, but no idea how confident you were.
From reading other comments, it seems like I put a different interpretation on the numbers than most people. Mine were based on times in the past that I’ve formed an opinion from secondhand sources (blogs etc.) on a controversial issue like this, and then later reversed that opinion after learning many more facts.
(I didn’t put any evidential weight on the jury’s ruling. Conditioning on the simple fact that their ruling is controversial screens off most of its value.)
I was unfamiliar with the case. I came up with: 1 − 20% 2 − 20% 3 − 96% 4 - probably in the same direction, but no idea how confident you were.
From reading other comments, it seems like I put a different interpretation on the numbers than most people. Mine were based on times in the past that I’ve formed an opinion from secondhand sources (blogs etc.) on a controversial issue like this, and then later reversed that opinion after learning many more facts.
(I didn’t put any evidential weight on the jury’s ruling. Conditioning on the simple fact that their ruling is controversial screens off most of its value.)