Great idea. I had heard the name Amanda Knox and knew that she was suspected in a murder of another exchange student in Italy. Thats it. I looked at both sites and much of the evidence. I glanced at the wikipedia page briefly and did a limited google search to try and find information about one more fact that I was hoping to find in the pro-Amanda page, but didn’t.
My answers:
13% she was in the room and assisted in the murder. 9% She was involved in some other way, had prior knowledge etc..
15% in the room, 9% other involvement.
97%
I’d say there is a 60% chance all your estimations are within 15 percentiles of mine.
A couple notes: The thing keeping 1 and 2 up there for me are the times on Knox’s phone calls to Kercher. 3 and 4 seconds is way to short. But so much of the Kercher site appears to be unsubstantiated rumor I can’t figure out if this was actually evidence or made up and unproven. I also can’t figure out what Sollecito and Knox claimed to be doing during the time frame of the murder. They were obviously on drugs and then coerced into false statements so it is plausible they would be confused and have inconsistent stories but I don’t know what they ended up claiming in court so I’m left with their statements to the police.
Also, I found that seeing the faces of the girls immediately undermined my objectivity. Not one way or another necessarily, but I felt emotional attachments to the case coming on at a disturbing rate. I would feel a lot better about my estimations if I hadn’t seen their photos.
Finally, making this comment without seeing anyone else’s estimations is definitely a little scary.
Update: I’ve gone over the timelines. Incredibly frustrating since I can’t seem to find an objective account anywhere. But it doesn’t look good for Knox and Sollecito. The short phone calls are really bothering me. I’m bumping up the probabilities they were involve by 25% each. Since I’m now in the middle I imagine I’m not that close komponisto’s view. I’m gonna take a break since reading this stuff is making me really sick. But does anyone have an explanation for the phone calls?
Great idea. I had heard the name Amanda Knox and knew that she was suspected in a murder of another exchange student in Italy. Thats it. I looked at both sites and much of the evidence. I glanced at the wikipedia page briefly and did a limited google search to try and find information about one more fact that I was hoping to find in the pro-Amanda page, but didn’t.
My answers:
13% she was in the room and assisted in the murder. 9% She was involved in some other way, had prior knowledge etc..
15% in the room, 9% other involvement.
97%
I’d say there is a 60% chance all your estimations are within 15 percentiles of mine.
A couple notes: The thing keeping 1 and 2 up there for me are the times on Knox’s phone calls to Kercher. 3 and 4 seconds is way to short. But so much of the Kercher site appears to be unsubstantiated rumor I can’t figure out if this was actually evidence or made up and unproven. I also can’t figure out what Sollecito and Knox claimed to be doing during the time frame of the murder. They were obviously on drugs and then coerced into false statements so it is plausible they would be confused and have inconsistent stories but I don’t know what they ended up claiming in court so I’m left with their statements to the police.
Also, I found that seeing the faces of the girls immediately undermined my objectivity. Not one way or another necessarily, but I felt emotional attachments to the case coming on at a disturbing rate. I would feel a lot better about my estimations if I hadn’t seen their photos.
Finally, making this comment without seeing anyone else’s estimations is definitely a little scary.
Update: I’ve gone over the timelines. Incredibly frustrating since I can’t seem to find an objective account anywhere. But it doesn’t look good for Knox and Sollecito. The short phone calls are really bothering me. I’m bumping up the probabilities they were involve by 25% each. Since I’m now in the middle I imagine I’m not that close komponisto’s view. I’m gonna take a break since reading this stuff is making me really sick. But does anyone have an explanation for the phone calls?