The core issues I had with it are that the scenario he’s envisioning just isn’t playing out in the real world. He has a mostly coherent model he’s working with, and he’s making the valid claim that “for some set of parameters and constants, terrible things happen!” It’s just that in real life, the parameters and constants are nowhere near what’s needed for the badness he’s claiming.
Specifically:
His scenario requires a much higher mutation rate than we’re seeing;
His scenario assumes vaccine immunity isn’t very strong, but what we’re seeing is incredibly strong immune responses;
His scenario assumes that natural immunity (from being infected) is significantly stronger than the vaccine generated immunity, which doesn’t appear to be the case.
Basically, none of his assumptions are valid, and so his final prediction is for a reality that isn’t ours.
The core issues I had with it are that the scenario he’s envisioning just isn’t playing out in the real world. He has a mostly coherent model he’s working with, and he’s making the valid claim that “for some set of parameters and constants, terrible things happen!” It’s just that in real life, the parameters and constants are nowhere near what’s needed for the badness he’s claiming.
Specifically:
His scenario requires a much higher mutation rate than we’re seeing;
His scenario assumes vaccine immunity isn’t very strong, but what we’re seeing is incredibly strong immune responses;
His scenario assumes that natural immunity (from being infected) is significantly stronger than the vaccine generated immunity, which doesn’t appear to be the case.
Basically, none of his assumptions are valid, and so his final prediction is for a reality that isn’t ours.
How about now ?