Should I assign a significant chance that the US will actually default on some debts? Betting markets are at 6%, but they’re pretty bad at the tails, for various reasons. CDS spreads (people buying insurance for/against a default) are 172bp, implying a 1.72% chance with a fair bit of real money wagered. It’s also likely somewhat skewed, for regulatory and technical reasons, but less than the betting markets.
This wouldn’t be an existential threat, but it’s definitely a stability and lifestyle threat for a lot of current and future humans, and likely exacerbates other threats.
Not sure I can do much about it, but it’s on my mind.
Should I assign a significant chance that the US will actually default on some debts? Betting markets are at 6%, but they’re pretty bad at the tails, for various reasons. CDS spreads (people buying insurance for/against a default) are 172bp, implying a 1.72% chance with a fair bit of real money wagered. It’s also likely somewhat skewed, for regulatory and technical reasons, but less than the betting markets.
This wouldn’t be an existential threat, but it’s definitely a stability and lifestyle threat for a lot of current and future humans, and likely exacerbates other threats.
Not sure I can do much about it, but it’s on my mind.