I was 95% sure of the century, and was right about that much—but my 20% probability of +- 15 years didn’t make any sense in hindsight, given the information that I had.
Embarrassing since lately I’ve been talking a lot about both probability and the history of philosophy after Newton.
That’s only embarrassing if you gave a probability of 75% of being +- 15 years. If you put 10 or 20%, you’re fine.
I was 95% sure of the century, and was right about that much—but my 20% probability of +- 15 years didn’t make any sense in hindsight, given the information that I had.
Embarrassing since lately I’ve been talking a lot about both probability and the history of philosophy after Newton.