Everyone should take the survey before reading any more comments, in case they contain anchors etc.
I took the survey. My estimates will be very poorly calibrated (I haven’t done much in the way of calibration/estimation exercises) but I’m hoping they’ll at least be good enough for wisdom-of-the-crowds purposes and more useful than just leaving blank.
Minor quibble: shouldn’t “p(xrisk)” be “p(NOT xrisk)”? Just worried about people in a hurry not reading the question properly.
Everyone should take the survey before reading any more comments, in case they contain anchors etc.
I took the survey. My estimates will be very poorly calibrated (I haven’t done much in the way of calibration/estimation exercises) but I’m hoping they’ll at least be good enough for wisdom-of-the-crowds purposes and more useful than just leaving blank.
Minor quibble: shouldn’t “p(xrisk)” be “p(NOT xrisk)”? Just worried about people in a hurry not reading the question properly.