“fixed”. I’m genuinely sorry for being inconsiderate, I’m young and still have a tendency to use provocative language if I feel emotionally stimulated.
On a lighter note… I’m curious how some of you may have estimated a very low probability of say… the likelihood that one religion is a very good approximation to the truth. I doubt that there really is any way in which someone could give a sensible estimate, unless one were to put years of work into it to weigh all the (non)evidence meticulously (and as we know religions tend to dress their stories in a LOT of colorful detail, because hearing details makes things appear more true, since they assist our human imagination).
How could one of us, in a practical way, come up with a roughly realistic number? I used something like 0,0000000000000000001% probability because that’s what it -feels- like to me. I can only imagine how unlikely it would be, by comparing it to something very unlikely… like winning the lottery twice in a row. Which still doesn’t feel as surprising as discovering that our world is formed out of the body of a slayed giant. But then again my feeling of surprise upon winning the lottery (I’m not actually playing) is of course in no way directly proportional to the actual odds of winning either. What kind of thought process went through your head when you had to answer this question? (I’m asking everyone in general, not just Alicorn).
I personally put 0% after some waffling around, which I felt a bit uncomfortable about because I thought some of the things I listed as 0% were more likely than others, but since I thought they were all too unlikely to meaningfully quantify, zero-plus-epsilon seemed like the best I could do.
On a lighter note… I’m curious how some of you may have estimated a very low probability of say… the likelihood that one religion is a very good approximation to the truth.
I put a reasonably high number in for that, actually (several orders of magnitude higher than supernatural phenomena and several further orders of magnitude higher than a supernatural creator god, given supernatural = fundamentally mental). There are a lot of very different religions and the idea that a simulator (or alien) communicated with someone on Earth and this formed the basis of some religion I never heard of, or that some particular low entropy religion got enough details right by coincidence to be mostly right, doesn’t sound that unreasonable.
I left that field plank because I don’t think the question is well defined. It has very little meaning to assign probabilities on the existence of something as vaque as a god. Maybe there is a god, maybe there isn’t. It’s entirely beyond my scope.
Please do not use this word in this way.
“fixed”. I’m genuinely sorry for being inconsiderate, I’m young and still have a tendency to use provocative language if I feel emotionally stimulated.
On a lighter note… I’m curious how some of you may have estimated a very low probability of say… the likelihood that one religion is a very good approximation to the truth. I doubt that there really is any way in which someone could give a sensible estimate, unless one were to put years of work into it to weigh all the (non)evidence meticulously (and as we know religions tend to dress their stories in a LOT of colorful detail, because hearing details makes things appear more true, since they assist our human imagination).
How could one of us, in a practical way, come up with a roughly realistic number? I used something like 0,0000000000000000001% probability because that’s what it -feels- like to me. I can only imagine how unlikely it would be, by comparing it to something very unlikely… like winning the lottery twice in a row. Which still doesn’t feel as surprising as discovering that our world is formed out of the body of a slayed giant. But then again my feeling of surprise upon winning the lottery (I’m not actually playing) is of course in no way directly proportional to the actual odds of winning either. What kind of thought process went through your head when you had to answer this question? (I’m asking everyone in general, not just Alicorn).
I personally put 0% after some waffling around, which I felt a bit uncomfortable about because I thought some of the things I listed as 0% were more likely than others, but since I thought they were all too unlikely to meaningfully quantify, zero-plus-epsilon seemed like the best I could do.
I put a reasonably high number in for that, actually (several orders of magnitude higher than supernatural phenomena and several further orders of magnitude higher than a supernatural creator god, given supernatural = fundamentally mental). There are a lot of very different religions and the idea that a simulator (or alien) communicated with someone on Earth and this formed the basis of some religion I never heard of, or that some particular low entropy religion got enough details right by coincidence to be mostly right, doesn’t sound that unreasonable.
I left that field plank because I don’t think the question is well defined. It has very little meaning to assign probabilities on the existence of something as vaque as a god. Maybe there is a god, maybe there isn’t. It’s entirely beyond my scope.