Incidentally what would the best investment/consumption strategy be if you thought a singularity was imminent? Consume only the barest minimum, and invest everything in stocks or other business opportunities? If many people behaved like this interest rates should go to zero, or even become negative.
Hanson’s simple models say that even under conservative assumptions, machine intelligence could increase annual world GDP growth rates to 25% from 3 or 4%. In that sort of steady state model, presumably the future growth would be priced into bonds or else investors would flee them for equities. On the other hand, if the market is insufficiently efficient/omniscient to foresee such an increase in growth rates, then there’d be a period where investors locked into low fixed-rate bonds will be screwed and missing out on the huge gains being reaped by equity investors.
I think markets are mostly efficient and I haven’t heard of even long-term bonds being priced very highly, so I would guess that either no machine intelligence is in the offing or the markets are not being efficient about this. Since I have strong reasons to believe that the former is false, I choose the latter—the markets are inefficiently prizing the current low fixed-income offerings. Hence, buying equities would be a better long-term strategy.
Hanson’s simple models say that even under conservative assumptions, machine intelligence could increase annual world GDP growth rates to 25% from 3 or 4%. In that sort of steady state model, presumably the future growth would be priced into bonds or else investors would flee them for equities. On the other hand, if the market is insufficiently efficient/omniscient to foresee such an increase in growth rates, then there’d be a period where investors locked into low fixed-rate bonds will be screwed and missing out on the huge gains being reaped by equity investors.
I think markets are mostly efficient and I haven’t heard of even long-term bonds being priced very highly, so I would guess that either no machine intelligence is in the offing or the markets are not being efficient about this. Since I have strong reasons to believe that the former is false, I choose the latter—the markets are inefficiently prizing the current low fixed-income offerings. Hence, buying equities would be a better long-term strategy.