“Perfect knowledge would mean I also knew in advance that the coin would come up tails.”
This seems crucial to me.
Given what I know when asked to hand over the $100, I would want to have pre-committed to not pre-committing to hand over the $100 if offered the original bet.
Given what I would know if I were offered the bet before discovering the outcome of the flip I would wish to pre-commit to handing it over.
From which information set I should evaluate this? The information set I am actually at seems the most natural choice, and it also seems to be the one that WINS (at least in this world).
I’ll give you the quick and dirty patch for dealing with omega:
There is no way to know that, at that moment, you are not inside of his simulation. by giving him the 100$, there is a chance you are tranfering that money from within a simulation-which is about to be terminated-to outside of the simulation, with a nice big multiplier.
“Perfect knowledge would mean I also knew in advance that the coin would come up tails.”
This seems crucial to me.
Given what I know when asked to hand over the $100, I would want to have pre-committed to not pre-committing to hand over the $100 if offered the original bet.
Given what I would know if I were offered the bet before discovering the outcome of the flip I would wish to pre-commit to handing it over.
From which information set I should evaluate this? The information set I am actually at seems the most natural choice, and it also seems to be the one that WINS (at least in this world).
What am I missing?
I’ll give you the quick and dirty patch for dealing with omega: There is no way to know that, at that moment, you are not inside of his simulation. by giving him the 100$, there is a chance you are tranfering that money from within a simulation-which is about to be terminated-to outside of the simulation, with a nice big multiplier.