I feel like this is trying to say something important but my brain isn’t parsing it.
First and foremost, what categorisation are we talking about?
Secondly, in what way are the categories framed in terms of social perception?
Thirdly, what do you mean by direction and how does Buck confuse the direction?
Hopefully this isn’t too rude to say, but: I am indeed confused how you could be confused. Maybe there’s some mental block for you, which would be interesting. Anyway, to answer your questions:
First and foremost, what categorisation are we talking about?
The main categorization in the post, of course. Quoting:
I want to split the AI timeline into the following categories.
The early game, during which interest in AI is not mainstream. I think this ended within the last year
The midgame, during which interest in AI is mainstream but before AGI is imminent. [....]
The endgame, during which AI companies conceive of themselves as actively building models that will imminently be transformative, and that pose existential takeover risk. [...]
Your Q:
Secondly, in what way are the categories framed in terms of social perception?
AFAICT the only condition here that isn’t about the stories people are telling, is in the midgame, “but before AGI is immiment”. Everything else is “interest in...”, “interest in...”, “concieve of themselves...”.
Thirdly, what do you mean by direction and how does Buck confuse the direction?
People can think AGI will come soon when it doesn’t, or think it won’t when it will, and this can happen for any value of “AGI”. Buck seems to be making plans based on stages centered around social perception / narrative rather than what’s actually happening in terms of what actual AI stuff there is (big piles of data and compute, algorithms, etc).
I feel like this is trying to say something important but my brain isn’t parsing it.
First and foremost, what categorisation are we talking about? Secondly, in what way are the categories framed in terms of social perception? Thirdly, what do you mean by direction and how does Buck confuse the direction?
(Sorry if this is obvious)
Hopefully this isn’t too rude to say, but: I am indeed confused how you could be confused. Maybe there’s some mental block for you, which would be interesting. Anyway, to answer your questions:
The main categorization in the post, of course. Quoting:
Your Q:
AFAICT the only condition here that isn’t about the stories people are telling, is in the midgame, “but before AGI is immiment”. Everything else is “interest in...”, “interest in...”, “concieve of themselves...”.
People can think AGI will come soon when it doesn’t, or think it won’t when it will, and this can happen for any value of “AGI”. Buck seems to be making plans based on stages centered around social perception / narrative rather than what’s actually happening in terms of what actual AI stuff there is (big piles of data and compute, algorithms, etc).
Fwiw, I was also confused and your comment makes a lot more sense now. I think it’s just difficult to convert text into meaning sometimes.
Ok, thanks for the data, updating some.