Part of influencing culture should include the spreading of rationality. This is actually related to why I think that the rationality movement has more in common with organized skepticism than is generally acknowledged. Consider what would happen if the general public had enough epistemic rationality to recognize that homeopathy was complete nonsense. In the United States alone, people spend around three billion dollars a year on homeopathy (source). If that went away, and only 5% of that ended up getting spent on things that actually increase general utility, that means around $150 million dollars are now going into useful things. And that’s only a tiny example. The US spends about 30 to 40 billion dollars a year on alternative medicine much of which is also a complete waste. We’re not talking here about a Hansonian approach where much medicine is only of marginal use or only helps the very sick who are going to die soon. We’re talking about “medicine” that does zero. And many of the people taking those alternatives will take those alternatives instead of taking medicine that will improve their lives. Improving the general population’s rationality will be a net win for everyone. And if some tiny set of those freed resources goes to dealing with existential risk? Even better.
Part of influencing culture should include the spreading of rationality. This is actually related to why I think that the rationality movement has more in common with organized skepticism than is generally acknowledged. Consider what would happen if the general public had enough epistemic rationality to recognize that homeopathy was complete nonsense.
Okay, but now the rationality that you’re talking about is “ordinary rationality” rather than “extreme rationality” and the general public rather than the Less Wrong community. What is Less Wrong community doing to spread ordinary rationality within the general public?
The US spends about 30 to 40 billion dollars a year on alternative medicine much of which is also a complete waste [...] We’re talking about “medicine” that does zero.
Are you sure that the placebo effects are never sufficiently useful to warrant the cost?
Okay, but now the rationality that you’re talking about is “ordinary rationality” rather than “extreme rationality” and the general public rather than the Less Wrong community. What is Less Wrong community doing to spread ordinary rationality within the general public?
A lot of the aspects of “extreme rationality” are aspects of rationality in general (understanding the scientific method and the nature of evidence, trying to make experiments to test things, being aware of serious cognitive biases, etc.) Also, I suspect (and this may not be accurate) that a lot of the ideas of extreme rationality are ones which LWers will simply spread in casual conversation, not necessarily out of any deliberate attempt to spread them, but because they are really neat. For example, the representativeness heuristic is an amazing form of cognitive bias. Similarly, the 2-4-6 game is independently fun to play with people and helps them learn better.
Are you sure that the placebo effects are never sufficiently useful to warrant the cost?
I was careful to say that much, not all. Placebos can help. And some of it involves treatments that will eventually turn out to be helpful when they get studied. There are entire subindustries that aren’t just useless but downright harmful (chelation therapy for autism would be an example). And large parts of the alternative medicine world involve claims that are emotionally damaging to patients (such as claims that cancer is a result of negatives beliefs). And when one isn’t talking about something like homeopathy which is just water but rather remedies that involve chemically active substances the chance that actual complications will occur from them grows.
Deliberately giving placebos is of questionable ethical value, but if we think it is ok we can do it with cheap sugar pills delivered at a pharmacy. Cheaper, safer and better controlled. And people won’t be getting the sugar pills as an alternative to treatment when treatment is possible.
Part of influencing culture should include the spreading of rationality. This is actually related to why I think that the rationality movement has more in common with organized skepticism than is generally acknowledged. Consider what would happen if the general public had enough epistemic rationality to recognize that homeopathy was complete nonsense. In the United States alone, people spend around three billion dollars a year on homeopathy (source). If that went away, and only 5% of that ended up getting spent on things that actually increase general utility, that means around $150 million dollars are now going into useful things. And that’s only a tiny example. The US spends about 30 to 40 billion dollars a year on alternative medicine much of which is also a complete waste. We’re not talking here about a Hansonian approach where much medicine is only of marginal use or only helps the very sick who are going to die soon. We’re talking about “medicine” that does zero. And many of the people taking those alternatives will take those alternatives instead of taking medicine that will improve their lives. Improving the general population’s rationality will be a net win for everyone. And if some tiny set of those freed resources goes to dealing with existential risk? Even better.
Okay, but now the rationality that you’re talking about is “ordinary rationality” rather than “extreme rationality” and the general public rather than the Less Wrong community. What is Less Wrong community doing to spread ordinary rationality within the general public?
Are you sure that the placebo effects are never sufficiently useful to warrant the cost?
A lot of the aspects of “extreme rationality” are aspects of rationality in general (understanding the scientific method and the nature of evidence, trying to make experiments to test things, being aware of serious cognitive biases, etc.) Also, I suspect (and this may not be accurate) that a lot of the ideas of extreme rationality are ones which LWers will simply spread in casual conversation, not necessarily out of any deliberate attempt to spread them, but because they are really neat. For example, the representativeness heuristic is an amazing form of cognitive bias. Similarly, the 2-4-6 game is independently fun to play with people and helps them learn better.
I was careful to say that much, not all. Placebos can help. And some of it involves treatments that will eventually turn out to be helpful when they get studied. There are entire subindustries that aren’t just useless but downright harmful (chelation therapy for autism would be an example). And large parts of the alternative medicine world involve claims that are emotionally damaging to patients (such as claims that cancer is a result of negatives beliefs). And when one isn’t talking about something like homeopathy which is just water but rather remedies that involve chemically active substances the chance that actual complications will occur from them grows.
Deliberately giving placebos is of questionable ethical value, but if we think it is ok we can do it with cheap sugar pills delivered at a pharmacy. Cheaper, safer and better controlled. And people won’t be getting the sugar pills as an alternative to treatment when treatment is possible.