10% is a low bar, it would require a dubiously high level of confidence to rule out AI over a 90 year time frame (longer than the time since Turing and Von Neumann and the like got going, with a massively expanding tech industry, improved neuroimaging and neuroscience, superabundant hardware, and perhaps biological intelligence enhancement for researchers). I would estimate the average of the group you mention as over 1/3rd by 2100. Chalmers says AI is more likely than not by 2100, I think Robin and Nick are near half, and I am less certain about the others (who have said that it is important to address AI or AI risks but not given unambiguous estimates).
Here’s Ben Goertzel’s survey. I think that Dan Dennett’s median estimate is over a century, although at the 10% level by 2100 I suspect he would agree. Dawkins has made statements that suggest similar estimates, although perhaps with someone shorter timelines. Likewise for Doug Hofstadter, who claimed at the Stanford Singularity Summit to have raised his estimate of time to human-level AI from 21st century to mid-late millenium, although he weirdly claimed to have done so for non-truth-seeking reasons.
10% is a low bar, it would require a dubiously high level of confidence to rule out AI over a 90 year time frame (longer than the time since Turing and Von Neumann and the like got going, with a massively expanding tech industry, improved neuroimaging and neuroscience, superabundant hardware, and perhaps biological intelligence enhancement for researchers). I would estimate the average of the group you mention as over 1/3rd by 2100. Chalmers says AI is more likely than not by 2100, I think Robin and Nick are near half, and I am less certain about the others (who have said that it is important to address AI or AI risks but not given unambiguous estimates).
Here’s Ben Goertzel’s survey. I think that Dan Dennett’s median estimate is over a century, although at the 10% level by 2100 I suspect he would agree. Dawkins has made statements that suggest similar estimates, although perhaps with someone shorter timelines. Likewise for Doug Hofstadter, who claimed at the Stanford Singularity Summit to have raised his estimate of time to human-level AI from 21st century to mid-late millenium, although he weirdly claimed to have done so for non-truth-seeking reasons.