Yeah, I am a fan of Freakonomics generally too. I will write to them, I think. Will let you know how it goes. I want to confirm I am right about the probability stuff though, I still have a niggling doubt that I’ve just misunderstood something. But I think they are definitely wrong about the forecast updating.
Yeah, I am a fan of Freakonomics generally too. I will write to them, I think. Will let you know how it goes. I want to confirm I am right about the probability stuff though, I still have a niggling doubt that I’ve just misunderstood something. But I think they are definitely wrong about the forecast updating.