Notice that many of the incidents mentioned at your link don’t involve nuclear bombs at all: many involve leaks at research facilities and power stations. Here’s a chronological list of radiation incidents that caused injury from the start of the 20th century onwards. The vast majority don’t involve nuclear bombs.
Historically, unless you were in Hiroshima or Nagasaki, you would have been less likely to die from a nuclear bombing than you would have been to die from a radiation leak, picking up a lost radioactive source without recognizing it (or living with someone who’s brought one into your home), being poisoned with radiation by a coworker, or medical overexposure. (Note also that the list is surely incomplete.) It is possible that this trend will reverse in the future, but it’s not obvious that it will.
More generally, gwern sounds about right to me on the subject of terrorists putting together their own nuke. (Or hauling one up from the bottom of the ocean.)
Notice that many of the incidents mentioned at your link don’t involve nuclear bombs at all: many involve leaks at research facilities and power stations. Here’s a chronological list of radiation incidents that caused injury from the start of the 20th century onwards. The vast majority don’t involve nuclear bombs.
Historically, unless you were in Hiroshima or Nagasaki, you would have been less likely to die from a nuclear bombing than you would have been to die from a radiation leak, picking up a lost radioactive source without recognizing it (or living with someone who’s brought one into your home), being poisoned with radiation by a coworker, or medical overexposure. (Note also that the list is surely incomplete.) It is possible that this trend will reverse in the future, but it’s not obvious that it will.
More generally, gwern sounds about right to me on the subject of terrorists putting together their own nuke. (Or hauling one up from the bottom of the ocean.)
Coincidentally I just the other day learned of the banana equivalent dose as a way of placing the risk of radiation leaks in context.