I started to write: The probabilities in my priors are so low that I don’t expect any update to occur, even if you could accurately measure. Then I thought: Wait, that’s what ‘prior’ means: of course I don’t expect any update to occur! Rationality is hard.
So instead, I’ll phrase my confusion this way: I have a hard time stating a belief for which even a surprising result to this measurement would matter. There are so many other reasons to recommend being raised by loving parents that “increased likelihood of murder from near-zero to still-near-zero” is unlikely to change such a preference.
And the overall murder rate is already so low that the reverse isn’t true either: you shouldn’t worry significantly less about an acquaintance murdering someone just because they have loving parents. Because in most cases you CANNOT worry less than you already should, which is near-zero.
I’m not really thinking in terms of particular issues, the more interesting questions in my mind are the issues that would arise in collecting such data.
I started to write: The probabilities in my priors are so low that I don’t expect any update to occur, even if you could accurately measure. Then I thought: Wait, that’s what ‘prior’ means: of course I don’t expect any update to occur! Rationality is hard.
So instead, I’ll phrase my confusion this way: I have a hard time stating a belief for which even a surprising result to this measurement would matter. There are so many other reasons to recommend being raised by loving parents that “increased likelihood of murder from near-zero to still-near-zero” is unlikely to change such a preference.
And the overall murder rate is already so low that the reverse isn’t true either: you shouldn’t worry significantly less about an acquaintance murdering someone just because they have loving parents. Because in most cases you CANNOT worry less than you already should, which is near-zero.
I’m not really thinking in terms of particular issues, the more interesting questions in my mind are the issues that would arise in collecting such data.