I probably should have inserted the word “practical” in that sentence. Bayesianism would seem to be formalized, but how practical is it for daily use? Is it possible to meaningfully (and with reasonable levels of observable objectivity) assign the necessary values needed by the Bayesian algorithm(s)?
More importantly, perhaps, would it be at least theoretically possible to write software to mediate the process of Bayesian discussion and analysis? If so, then I’m interested in trying to figure out how that might work. (I got pretty hopelessly lost trying to do explicit Bayesian analysis on one of my own beliefs.)
The process I’m proposing is one that is designed specifically to be manageable via software, with as few “special admin powers” as possible.
...
“Bush was really awful” was intended more as {an arbitrary “starter claim” for me to use in showing how {rational debate on political topics} becomes “politicized”} than {an argument I would expect to be persuasive}.
If a real debate had started that way, I would have expected the very first counterargument to be something like “you provide no evidence for this claim”, which would then defeat it until I provided some evidence… which itself might then become the subject of further counterarguments, and so on.
In this structure, “No he isn’t.” would not be a valid counterargument—but it does highlight the fact that the system will need some way to distinguish valid counterarguments from invalid ones, otherwise it has the potential to degenerate into posting “fgfgfgfgf” as an argument, and the system wouldn’t know any better than to accept it.
I’m thinking that the solution might be some kind of voting system (like karma points, but more specific) where a supermajority can rule that an argument is invalid, with some sort of consequence to the arguer’s ability to participate further if they post too many arguments ruled as invalid.
I probably should have inserted the word “practical” in that sentence. Bayesianism would seem to be formalized, but how practical is it for daily use? Is it possible to meaningfully (and with reasonable levels of observable objectivity) assign the necessary values needed by the Bayesian algorithm(s)?
More importantly, perhaps, would it be at least theoretically possible to write software to mediate the process of Bayesian discussion and analysis? If so, then I’m interested in trying to figure out how that might work. (I got pretty hopelessly lost trying to do explicit Bayesian analysis on one of my own beliefs.)
The process I’m proposing is one that is designed specifically to be manageable via software, with as few “special admin powers” as possible.
...
“Bush was really awful” was intended more as {an arbitrary “starter claim” for me to use in showing how {rational debate on political topics} becomes “politicized”} than {an argument I would expect to be persuasive}.
If a real debate had started that way, I would have expected the very first counterargument to be something like “you provide no evidence for this claim”, which would then defeat it until I provided some evidence… which itself might then become the subject of further counterarguments, and so on.
In this structure, “No he isn’t.” would not be a valid counterargument—but it does highlight the fact that the system will need some way to distinguish valid counterarguments from invalid ones, otherwise it has the potential to degenerate into posting “fgfgfgfgf” as an argument, and the system wouldn’t know any better than to accept it.
I’m thinking that the solution might be some kind of voting system (like karma points, but more specific) where a supermajority can rule that an argument is invalid, with some sort of consequence to the arguer’s ability to participate further if they post too many arguments ruled as invalid.