suppose it’s more likely that he’ll torture 3^^^^3 people if you give him the money
That’s a different problem than Pascal’s Wager. Taking it back to the original, it would be like saying “Convert to Christianity pro forma for a chance at heaven rather than no chance of heaven, ignoring all other magical options.” The problem with this isn’t the quantities of utility involved, it’s the assumption that a god who cares about such conversions to Christianity is the only option for a divine, rather than a God of Islam who would burn Christian converts hotter than atheists, or a PC Christian god who would have a heaven for all who were honest with themsleves and didn’t go through pro forma conversions. The answer to the wager is that the random assumption that all forms of magic but one have less probability than that one story about magic is a dumb assumption.
It’s fine to consider Pascal’s Wager*, where Pascal’s Wager* is under the assumption that our interlocutor is trustworthy, but that’s a different problem and is well articulated as the lifespan dilemma, which is legitimately posed as a separate problem.
As probability is in the mind, when I ask “what would a magical being of infinite power be doing if it asked me for something in a context where it was disguised as a probably not magical being?” My best guess is that it is a test with small consequences, and I can’t distinguish between the chances of “It’s serious” and “It’s a sadistic being who will do the opposite of what it said.”
The problem with this isn’t the quantities of utility involved, it’s the assumption that a god who cares about such conversions to Christianity is the only option for a divine, rather than a God of Islam who would burn Christian converts hotter than atheists, or a PC Christian god who would have a heaven for all who were honest with themsleves and didn’t go through pro forma conversions.
Each of these possibilities has some probability associated with it. Taking them all into account, what is the expected utility of being a Christian? One may ignore those to make the question simpler, but unless all the possibilities cancel out nicely, you’re still going to end up with something.
The answer to the wager is that the random assumption that all forms of magic but one have less probability than that one story about magic is a dumb assumption.
Perhaps no one outweighs all the rest, but if you add them all together, they’d point in one general direction. It’s so close to zero that if you tried to calculate it, you’d barely be able to do better than chance. You’d still be able to do better, though.
I think there is a significant chance you are right, but that it is less than .5. I hope others can add to this discussion. I am reminded of this, if you tell me I am seeing an actual banana that I am holding, rather than an image my brain made of a collection of atoms, then...I don’t even know anymore.
That’s a different problem than Pascal’s Wager. Taking it back to the original, it would be like saying “Convert to Christianity pro forma for a chance at heaven rather than no chance of heaven, ignoring all other magical options.” The problem with this isn’t the quantities of utility involved, it’s the assumption that a god who cares about such conversions to Christianity is the only option for a divine, rather than a God of Islam who would burn Christian converts hotter than atheists, or a PC Christian god who would have a heaven for all who were honest with themsleves and didn’t go through pro forma conversions. The answer to the wager is that the random assumption that all forms of magic but one have less probability than that one story about magic is a dumb assumption.
It’s fine to consider Pascal’s Wager*, where Pascal’s Wager* is under the assumption that our interlocutor is trustworthy, but that’s a different problem and is well articulated as the lifespan dilemma, which is legitimately posed as a separate problem.
As probability is in the mind, when I ask “what would a magical being of infinite power be doing if it asked me for something in a context where it was disguised as a probably not magical being?” My best guess is that it is a test with small consequences, and I can’t distinguish between the chances of “It’s serious” and “It’s a sadistic being who will do the opposite of what it said.”
Each of these possibilities has some probability associated with it. Taking them all into account, what is the expected utility of being a Christian? One may ignore those to make the question simpler, but unless all the possibilities cancel out nicely, you’re still going to end up with something.
Perhaps no one outweighs all the rest, but if you add them all together, they’d point in one general direction. It’s so close to zero that if you tried to calculate it, you’d barely be able to do better than chance. You’d still be able to do better, though.
I think there is a significant chance you are right, but that it is less than .5. I hope others can add to this discussion. I am reminded of this, if you tell me I am seeing an actual banana that I am holding, rather than an image my brain made of a collection of atoms, then...I don’t even know anymore.