I suppose the relevant question is now, “Does Omega mentioning red tell us anything about what is in the jar?” When we know the set of possible objects in the jar, it really tells us nothing new. If the set of possible objects is unknown, now we know red is a possibility and we can adjust accordingly.
The assumption here is that Omega is just randomly asking about something from the possible set of objects. Essentially, since Omega is admitting that red could be in the jar, we know red could be in the jar. In the 12 color scenario, we already know this. I do not think that Omega mentioning red should effect our guess.
All this arguing about priors eerily resembles scholastics, balancing angels on the head of a pin. Okay I get it, we read Omega’s Bible differently: unlike me, you see no symbolic significance in the mention of red. Riiiiight. Now how about an experiment?
All this arguing about priors eerily resembles scholastics, balancing angels on the head of a pin. Okay I get it, we read Omega’s Bible differently: unlike me, you see no symbolic significance in the mention of red. Riiiiight. Now how about an experiment?
Agreed. For what it is worth, I do see some significance in the mention of red, but cannot figure out why and do not see the significance in the 12 color example. This keeps setting off a red flag in my head because it seems inconsistent. Any help in figuring out why would be nifty.
In terms of an experiment, I would not bet at all if given the option. If I had to choose, I would choose whichever option costs less and right it off as a forced expense.
In English: If Omega said he had a dollar claiming the next bead would be red and asked me what I bet I would bet nothing. If I had to pick a non-zero number I would pick the smallest available.
I suppose the relevant question is now, “Does Omega mentioning red tell us anything about what is in the jar?” When we know the set of possible objects in the jar, it really tells us nothing new. If the set of possible objects is unknown, now we know red is a possibility and we can adjust accordingly.
The assumption here is that Omega is just randomly asking about something from the possible set of objects. Essentially, since Omega is admitting that red could be in the jar, we know red could be in the jar. In the 12 color scenario, we already know this. I do not think that Omega mentioning red should effect our guess.
All this arguing about priors eerily resembles scholastics, balancing angels on the head of a pin. Okay I get it, we read Omega’s Bible differently: unlike me, you see no symbolic significance in the mention of red. Riiiiight. Now how about an experiment?
Agreed. For what it is worth, I do see some significance in the mention of red, but cannot figure out why and do not see the significance in the 12 color example. This keeps setting off a red flag in my head because it seems inconsistent. Any help in figuring out why would be nifty.
In terms of an experiment, I would not bet at all if given the option. If I had to choose, I would choose whichever option costs less and right it off as a forced expense.
In English: If Omega said he had a dollar claiming the next bead would be red and asked me what I bet I would bet nothing. If I had to pick a non-zero number I would pick the smallest available.
But that doesn’t seem very interesting at all.