There probably exists (hypothetically) some plan such that it wouldn’t seem unreasonable to me to declare anyone who doesn’t endorse that plan either insufficiently well-informed or insufficiently intelligent.
In fact, there probably exist several such plans, many of which would have results I would subsequently regret, and some of which do not.
I think seeking and refining such plans would be a worthy goal. For one thing, it would make LW discussions more constructive. Currently, as far as I can tell, CEV is very broadly defined, and its critics usually point at some feature and cast (legitimate) doubt on it. Very soon, CEV is apparently full of holes and one may wonder why is it not thrown away already. But they may be not real holes, just places where we do not know enough yet. If these points are identified and stated in a form of questions of fact, which can be answered by future research, then a global plan, in the form of a decision tree, could be made and reasoned about. That would be a definite progress, I think.
There probably exists (hypothetically) some plan such that it wouldn’t seem unreasonable to me to declare anyone who doesn’t endorse that plan either insufficiently well-informed or insufficiently intelligent.
In fact, there probably exist several such plans, many of which would have results I would subsequently regret, and some of which do not.
I think seeking and refining such plans would be a worthy goal. For one thing, it would make LW discussions more constructive. Currently, as far as I can tell, CEV is very broadly defined, and its critics usually point at some feature and cast (legitimate) doubt on it. Very soon, CEV is apparently full of holes and one may wonder why is it not thrown away already. But they may be not real holes, just places where we do not know enough yet. If these points are identified and stated in a form of questions of fact, which can be answered by future research, then a global plan, in the form of a decision tree, could be made and reasoned about. That would be a definite progress, I think.
Agreed that an actual concrete plan would be a valuable thing, for the reasons you list among others.