If you pick 5000 years for your future lifespan if you win, 60 years if you lose, and you discount each following year by 5 percent, you should take the bet until your odds are worse than 48.6 percent doom.
Having children younger than you doesn’t change the numbers much unless you are ok with your children also being corpses and you care about hypothetical people not yet alive. (You can argue that this is a choice you cannot morally make for other people, but the mathematically optimal choice only depends on their discount rates)
Discounting also reduces your valuation of descendents because everything you are—genetics and culture—a certain percentage is lost with each year. This is I believe the “value drift” argument, over an infinite timespan mortal human generations will also lose all value in the universe those humans living today care about. It is no different in a thousand years if the future culture, 20 generations later, is human or AI. The AI descendants may have drifted less as AI models start immortal inherently.
If you pick 5000 years for your future lifespan if you win, 60 years if you lose, and you discount each following year by 5 percent, you should take the bet until your odds are worse than 48.6 percent doom.
Having children younger than you doesn’t change the numbers much unless you are ok with your children also being corpses and you care about hypothetical people not yet alive. (You can argue that this is a choice you cannot morally make for other people, but the mathematically optimal choice only depends on their discount rates)
Discounting also reduces your valuation of descendents because everything you are—genetics and culture—a certain percentage is lost with each year. This is I believe the “value drift” argument, over an infinite timespan mortal human generations will also lose all value in the universe those humans living today care about. It is no different in a thousand years if the future culture, 20 generations later, is human or AI. The AI descendants may have drifted less as AI models start immortal inherently.