The obvious solution is that I, as an incredibly powerful omnipotent god being, will mug anyone who spends too many resources dealing with pascals mugging style issues. If you have sufficient evidence that your particular example outweighs the risk of me doing that, then it’s not exactly a pascals mugging, is it?
At the very least it shows there’s a point behind which it’s no longer useful to consider a very small probability in your utility calculation. That point is where the probability of your hypothesis being true is close to being as probable as my claim being true. So now the big question is “how unlikely is my claim”?
Well it depends. Is the likelihood of it affecting reality around the same likelihood as me torturing everybody with my god powers? If it’s significantly higher then that, I’d argue it’s not an actual pascals mugging. Hard to know exactly where to draw the line though.
If it’s not significantly higher then that, then you have to balance against my threat to torture everybody.
The obvious solution is that I, as an incredibly powerful omnipotent god being, will mug anyone who spends too many resources dealing with pascals mugging style issues. If you have sufficient evidence that your particular example outweighs the risk of me doing that, then it’s not exactly a pascals mugging, is it?
At the very least it shows there’s a point behind which it’s no longer useful to consider a very small probability in your utility calculation. That point is where the probability of your hypothesis being true is close to being as probable as my claim being true. So now the big question is “how unlikely is my claim”?
What do we do when there is a very tiny (2^-x) chance that THIS random thing has incredibly huge (O(3^^^^3)) importance?
Well it depends. Is the likelihood of it affecting reality around the same likelihood as me torturing everybody with my god powers? If it’s significantly higher then that, I’d argue it’s not an actual pascals mugging. Hard to know exactly where to draw the line though.
If it’s not significantly higher then that, then you have to balance against my threat to torture everybody.