I’m not seriously worried about this (quarantine, as opposed to other disasters that disrupt supplies and travel), but it’s worth doing the next level of modeling. Outside of China, or at an international border (or on a cruise ship), it’s simply impossible to enforce it well, and kind of ludicrous to believe it’ll work on a population over a few hundred thousand. The current “lockdown” in italy is a couple of villages and towns, a total of 50K effected people, and lightly enforced by a small number of policemen. It’s really more advisory than mandatory.
A government MIGHT try something more rigorous for the fist couple of medium-sized cities with a major outbreak, but if it gets that bad, it won’t be long until a dozen more are hit, and it’s simply not going to happen that a majority of residents in any region are going to stay inside for very long, especially when the food starts running out.
Thinking tactically for how to make a week or two tolerable makes a ton of sense. Always, not just now. This is general insurance against many kinds of bad thing. Do that.
Thinking strategically about longer-term disasters, you should probably consider a more defensible spot over trying to fortify your current residence. Get out before a quarantine happens, and/or have enough cash or gold or drugs to convince a coyote to get you out. If it comes to that, though, all bets are off about what you’ll find outside the quarantine area anyway.
Basically, when I imagine scenarios with large-scale non-localized disasters, it comes out bimodal: either it’s unpleasant for a week or two then recovers, or the whole thing collapses and everyone dies.
This doesn’t sound right to me. I think there’s a significant chance of a scenario where a lot of people are sick, most people are voluntarily staying home as much as possible to limit risk, some things are still working (utilities) but many other things are not (home delivery services, shortages at stores).
I think “the whole thing collapses and everyone dies” is incredibly unlikely for a disease that kills only a few percent of people.
Sure, that’s the “things are unpleasant for a while and then get better” scenario. After a week of staying in, you have to go to the store, and then stay in mostly with only “important” errands. They may call it “quarantine”, but really it’s mostly voluntary—infrastructure and deliveries are still being made, and if you really tried to leave, you’d be able to.
Note that the “unpleasant” case is actually deadly for vulnerable populations. I don’t mean to minimize this, only to say that there’s a different level of preparation that makes sense than for deeper or more widespread disasters.
The “long period of quarantine” with transportation shut down and people not allowed to leave their houses (but not devolved into chaos and lawlessness) really can’t happen in a modern decentralized democracy. We’re far too entitled to put up with it.
I’m not seriously worried about this (quarantine, as opposed to other disasters that disrupt supplies and travel), but it’s worth doing the next level of modeling. Outside of China, or at an international border (or on a cruise ship), it’s simply impossible to enforce it well, and kind of ludicrous to believe it’ll work on a population over a few hundred thousand. The current “lockdown” in italy is a couple of villages and towns, a total of 50K effected people, and lightly enforced by a small number of policemen. It’s really more advisory than mandatory.
A government MIGHT try something more rigorous for the fist couple of medium-sized cities with a major outbreak, but if it gets that bad, it won’t be long until a dozen more are hit, and it’s simply not going to happen that a majority of residents in any region are going to stay inside for very long, especially when the food starts running out.
Thinking tactically for how to make a week or two tolerable makes a ton of sense. Always, not just now. This is general insurance against many kinds of bad thing. Do that.
Thinking strategically about longer-term disasters, you should probably consider a more defensible spot over trying to fortify your current residence. Get out before a quarantine happens, and/or have enough cash or gold or drugs to convince a coyote to get you out. If it comes to that, though, all bets are off about what you’ll find outside the quarantine area anyway.
Basically, when I imagine scenarios with large-scale non-localized disasters, it comes out bimodal: either it’s unpleasant for a week or two then recovers, or the whole thing collapses and everyone dies.
This doesn’t sound right to me. I think there’s a significant chance of a scenario where a lot of people are sick, most people are voluntarily staying home as much as possible to limit risk, some things are still working (utilities) but many other things are not (home delivery services, shortages at stores).
I think “the whole thing collapses and everyone dies” is incredibly unlikely for a disease that kills only a few percent of people.
Sure, that’s the “things are unpleasant for a while and then get better” scenario. After a week of staying in, you have to go to the store, and then stay in mostly with only “important” errands. They may call it “quarantine”, but really it’s mostly voluntary—infrastructure and deliveries are still being made, and if you really tried to leave, you’d be able to.
Note that the “unpleasant” case is actually deadly for vulnerable populations. I don’t mean to minimize this, only to say that there’s a different level of preparation that makes sense than for deeper or more widespread disasters.
The “long period of quarantine” with transportation shut down and people not allowed to leave their houses (but not devolved into chaos and lawlessness) really can’t happen in a modern decentralized democracy. We’re far too entitled to put up with it.
Where would you place global economic depression on your bimodal distribution?
See my shortform post.