What exactly do you mean by “create 10% of global GDP” ?
And why would you expect the current quite unreliable language models to have such a drastic effect ?
Anyway I will counterbet that by 2032 most translation will be automated (90%) most programmers will use automated tools dayly (70%) most top level mathematics journals will use proof-checking software as part of their reviewing process (80%) and computer generated articles will make up a majority of Internet “journalism” (50%).
I only have a vague idea what is meant by language models contributing to GDP.
Current language models are actually quite reliable when you give them easy questions. Practical deployment of language models are sometimes held to very high standards of reliability and lack of bias, possibly for regulatory, social or other practical reasons. Yet I personally know someone who works in customer service and is somewhat racist and not very reliable.
I am not sure I understand your counterbet. I would guess most translation is already automated, most programmers use automated tools already and most Internet “journalism” is already computer generated.
What exactly do you mean by “create 10% of global GDP” ?
And why would you expect the current quite unreliable language models to have such a drastic effect ?
Anyway I will counterbet that by 2032 most translation will be automated (90%) most programmers will use automated tools dayly (70%) most top level mathematics journals will use proof-checking software as part of their reviewing process (80%) and computer generated articles will make up a majority of Internet “journalism” (50%).
I only have a vague idea what is meant by language models contributing to GDP.
Current language models are actually quite reliable when you give them easy questions. Practical deployment of language models are sometimes held to very high standards of reliability and lack of bias, possibly for regulatory, social or other practical reasons. Yet I personally know someone who works in customer service and is somewhat racist and not very reliable.
I am not sure I understand your counterbet. I would guess most translation is already automated, most programmers use automated tools already and most Internet “journalism” is already computer generated.