I don’t think rejecting self-locating probability means totally rejecting probability as a measure of uncertainty. Because self-locating probability only applies to very specific anthropic problems. E.g.
An incubator creates two observers, the first in a blue room and the second in a red room. Given I am one of the created observers but don’t know if I am the first or the second. What is the probability that I will see blue when I turn on the lights?
Some people put me and another person into two rooms. One Blue, one red but the process is random or unknown to me. Before turning on the light what is the probability that I am in the blue room?
My position is that the two problems are fundamentally different, only problem 1 is what has been referred to as self-locating probability in anthropic paradoxes. The entire experiment is known from a god’s eye view. The uncertainty is which of the two observers is ME. ME (as well as Now or Here) are not some physical or observable identification but primitive concepts due to reasoning from a first-person perspective. So there is no reasonable way to attach a probability to it.
Problem 2 is different. I know which person is ME all along. The uncertainty is not about which is me but what happened to me. About the room assignment process. This whole problem can be described from a god’s eye view and is still comprehensible. I.E. “dadadarren and another person has been put into two rooms respectively, what is the probability that dadadarren is in the blue room?” So even though it askes which room I am in, it is different from the self-locating probabilities being discussed in anthropic problems. Probabilities like this are obviously valid.
You probably think this distinction is not meaningful. So saying self-locating probabilities are invalid would lead to all probability as a measure of uncertainty being invalid. But that is not the argument I am making. Granted, for some metaphysical views, the is no difference between the two types. E.g. the Many-Worlds Interpretation considers the self-locating probability as the source of probability. So my argument is not compatible with the MWI, i.e. it is a counter-argument against MWI.
Also, I am not making assumptions that the copies cannot go outside or ask others whether they are the Original. And they can certainly get into situations where the outcome depends on whether they are the original or the clone. I am arguing in such situations when a decision is involved, given my objective is about MY own benefit (as in the benefit of the “I” in self-locating probability) then there is no singular rational decision. Rational decisions only exist if the objective is about the collective benefit (total or average) of the copies, or a random sample from these copies. Yet it is hard to argue “maximizing MY own benefit” is disconnected from reality, something a real person will not do.
I don’t think rejecting self-locating probability means totally rejecting probability as a measure of uncertainty. Because self-locating probability only applies to very specific anthropic problems. E.g.
An incubator creates two observers, the first in a blue room and the second in a red room. Given I am one of the created observers but don’t know if I am the first or the second. What is the probability that I will see blue when I turn on the lights?
Some people put me and another person into two rooms. One Blue, one red but the process is random or unknown to me. Before turning on the light what is the probability that I am in the blue room?
My position is that the two problems are fundamentally different, only problem 1 is what has been referred to as self-locating probability in anthropic paradoxes. The entire experiment is known from a god’s eye view. The uncertainty is which of the two observers is ME. ME (as well as Now or Here) are not some physical or observable identification but primitive concepts due to reasoning from a first-person perspective. So there is no reasonable way to attach a probability to it.
Problem 2 is different. I know which person is ME all along. The uncertainty is not about which is me but what happened to me. About the room assignment process. This whole problem can be described from a god’s eye view and is still comprehensible. I.E. “dadadarren and another person has been put into two rooms respectively, what is the probability that dadadarren is in the blue room?” So even though it askes which room I am in, it is different from the self-locating probabilities being discussed in anthropic problems. Probabilities like this are obviously valid.
You probably think this distinction is not meaningful. So saying self-locating probabilities are invalid would lead to all probability as a measure of uncertainty being invalid. But that is not the argument I am making. Granted, for some metaphysical views, the is no difference between the two types. E.g. the Many-Worlds Interpretation considers the self-locating probability as the source of probability. So my argument is not compatible with the MWI, i.e. it is a counter-argument against MWI.
Also, I am not making assumptions that the copies cannot go outside or ask others whether they are the Original. And they can certainly get into situations where the outcome depends on whether they are the original or the clone. I am arguing in such situations when a decision is involved, given my objective is about MY own benefit (as in the benefit of the “I” in self-locating probability) then there is no singular rational decision. Rational decisions only exist if the objective is about the collective benefit (total or average) of the copies, or a random sample from these copies. Yet it is hard to argue “maximizing MY own benefit” is disconnected from reality, something a real person will not do.