Something like that, though I’m much less sure about “non-norms-violating”, because many possible solutions seem like they’d involve something qualitatively new (and therefore de-facto norm-violating, like nearly all new technology). Maybe a very superhuman TAI could arrange matters such that things just seem to randomly end up going well rather than badly, without introducing any new[1] social or material technology, but that does seem quite a bit harder.
I’m pretty uncertain about, if something like that ended up looking norm-violating, it’d be norm-violating like Uber was[2], or like super-persuasian. That question seems very contingent on empirical questions that I think we don’t have much insight into, right now.
I’m unsure about the claim that if you put this aside, there is a way to end the acute risk period without needing truly insanely smart AIs.
I didn’t mean to make the claim that there’s a way to end the acute risk period without needing truly insanely smart AIs (if you put aside centrally-illegal methods); rather, that an AI would probably need to be relatively low on the “smarter than humans” scale to need to resort to methods that were obviously illegal to end the acute risk period.
Something like that, though I’m much less sure about “non-norms-violating”, because many possible solutions seem like they’d involve something qualitatively new (and therefore de-facto norm-violating, like nearly all new technology). Maybe a very superhuman TAI could arrange matters such that things just seem to randomly end up going well rather than badly, without introducing any new[1] social or material technology, but that does seem quite a bit harder.
I’m pretty uncertain about, if something like that ended up looking norm-violating, it’d be norm-violating like Uber was[2], or like super-persuasian. That question seems very contingent on empirical questions that I think we don’t have much insight into, right now.
I didn’t mean to make the claim that there’s a way to end the acute risk period without needing truly insanely smart AIs (if you put aside centrally-illegal methods); rather, that an AI would probably need to be relatively low on the “smarter than humans” scale to need to resort to methods that were obviously illegal to end the acute risk period.
In ways that are obvious to humans.
Minus the part where Uber was pretty obviously illegal in many places where it operated.