You’ve left me very curious as to what high status beliefs you think are inaccurate.
I ‘m planning a LW post about a high status belief I believe to be inaccurate. I call this belief ‘the strong law of one price’ or SLOOP, a currently high status belief in financial economics. SLOOP essentially says that the fair value of an instrument (e.g., a contingent set of cash flows) does not depend on whether the market for that instrument is well modeled by a Walrasian auction. Examples of instruments that are not well modeled by a Walsasian auction include demand deposits and pension liabilities.
It’s my opinion that all the arguments in favor of SLOOP involve either an invalid form of inductive logic, or circular reasoning. I plan on doing some DIY science by conducting an online experiment. I’m going to offer $1,000 to anyone who can present in support of SLOOP, either empirical evidence or a valid deductive logical argument.
I’m going to offer $1,000 to anyone who can present in support of SLOOP, either empirical evidence or a valid deductive logical argument.
You might consider making your offer much more precise, specifying in advance exactly what sort of evidence you would find convincing. Do you really mean any evidence? Even if the SLoOP isn’t the best model of reality, there could still be probabilistic evidence that favors the SLoOP over some rival theories.
I ‘m planning a LW post about a high status belief I believe to be inaccurate. I call this belief ‘the strong law of one price’ or SLOOP, a currently high status belief in financial economics. SLOOP essentially says that the fair value of an instrument (e.g., a contingent set of cash flows) does not depend on whether the market for that instrument is well modeled by a Walrasian auction. Examples of instruments that are not well modeled by a Walsasian auction include demand deposits and pension liabilities.
It’s my opinion that all the arguments in favor of SLOOP involve either an invalid form of inductive logic, or circular reasoning. I plan on doing some DIY science by conducting an online experiment. I’m going to offer $1,000 to anyone who can present in support of SLOOP, either empirical evidence or a valid deductive logical argument.
You might consider making your offer much more precise, specifying in advance exactly what sort of evidence you would find convincing. Do you really mean any evidence? Even if the SLoOP isn’t the best model of reality, there could still be probabilistic evidence that favors the SLoOP over some rival theories.