he medical and scientific communities in the USA are not as well-trusted as they should be...
I disagree. I think Americans are far too trusting of medical professionals. So much of what has been recommended to me by doctors is useless or even harmful to my recovery. Ever tried to talk to your doctor about conditional probabilities? Also, I don’t think we should associate the medical profession so closely with “science”.
Its entirely possible that most Americans should trust doctors more (and homeopaths and themselves less) while above average Americans should trust doctors less.
I absolutely agree that most smart people trust doctors too much. If I trusted doctors more, I’d have gotten a completely unnecessary total disc replacement at the ripe old age of 22. As it was, I trusted him too much- I’m ashamed that I actually considered it even though I understood all the reasons the next doctor used in his judgement of “total disc replacement!?!? He’s insane!”
Starting on page 114 of his book about randomness, The Drunkard’s Walk, Physicist Leonard Mlodinow tells a real-life story about being told by his doctor that the results of a blood test showed that there was a 999 out of 1,000 chance he had AIDS and would be “dead within a decade.” Mlodinow (who did not have AIDS) uses this as an introduction to Bayes’ Theorem. His doctor had made exactly the error described in An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem.
You’re objecting that this particular instance wasn’t described in IEBT, but rather its class was? Otherwise I’m not sure what distinction you’re drawing. Or am I missing an edit by the parent?
I disagree. I think Americans are far too trusting of medical professionals. So much of what has been recommended to me by doctors is useless or even harmful to my recovery. Ever tried to talk to your doctor about conditional probabilities? Also, I don’t think we should associate the medical profession so closely with “science”.
Its entirely possible that most Americans should trust doctors more (and homeopaths and themselves less) while above average Americans should trust doctors less.
I absolutely agree that most smart people trust doctors too much. If I trusted doctors more, I’d have gotten a completely unnecessary total disc replacement at the ripe old age of 22. As it was, I trusted him too much- I’m ashamed that I actually considered it even though I understood all the reasons the next doctor used in his judgement of “total disc replacement!?!? He’s insane!”
Starting on page 114 of his book about randomness, The Drunkard’s Walk, Physicist Leonard Mlodinow tells a real-life story about being told by his doctor that the results of a blood test showed that there was a 999 out of 1,000 chance he had AIDS and would be “dead within a decade.” Mlodinow (who did not have AIDS) uses this as an introduction to Bayes’ Theorem. His doctor had made exactly the error described in An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem.
Well, to be precise, the Intuitive Explanation describes exactly this error, previously found to have been made by doctors.
You’re objecting that this particular instance wasn’t described in IEBT, but rather its class was? Otherwise I’m not sure what distinction you’re drawing. Or am I missing an edit by the parent?
I’m saying that the doctors are the original and IEBT is the copy, not the other way around.