No, I say I think it’s extremely unlikely to be right, and I wouldn’t use the word “know” to describe my epistemic situation about this. (Else I wouldn’t have brought it up even as a hypothesis worth considering.)
Whether you say “think” or “know” doesn’t matter; if your probability estimate is tilted one way, then you must think you have some kind of evidence already in hand which tilts it that way. What is it?
Oh, sorry—I didn’t actually answer your question because I thought its point was not “I doubt that you have evidence to justify that opinion of yours” but “Since you presumably have evidence to justify that opinion of yours, what makes you think ciphergoth doesn’t?”, and since (1) what it takes to make my point is only that it be some way from certainty, and (2) ciphergoth has said he didn’t mean what he said as literally as I took it, it seemed like the question was moot. But, since it turns out that you actually want an answer:
1. What (relatively little) I’ve read that’s written by sadomasochists and that seems pertinent seems to point the other way. (For instance, I’m pretty sure I’ve read things by sadomasochists that seem to indicate that at least some of them have plenty of fun sometimes having non-sadomasochistic sex.)
2. Notice that for that hypothesis to be right, it’s necessary that (at least for sadomasochists) sadomasochistic practices do in fact add something extra that enhances sex. So either (a) just about everyone finds, or would find if they tried it, that S&M makes sex better—which doesn’t appear to me to be likely—or (b) the hypothesis in it’s “what distinguishes sadomasochists is not X but Y” form is wrong, because in fact sadomasochists distinctively have property X too even if they also have Y.
3. There are rather a lot of sadomasochists. So, if the hypothesis is correct, either (a) there are an awful lot of people who lack the ability to enjoy sex “normally” (I hope it’s clear that I have no normative intentions here), or (b) almost everyone finds, or would find, that S&M makes sex better, or (c) there’s a substantial correlation between lacking the ability to enjoy sex “normally” and finding that S&M makes sex better. All three options seem improbable.
4. Gut feeling. (Which I shouldn’t, and don’t, trust very much; but I don’t mind deferring some of my probability estimation to my gut in cases where the probabilities don’t actually make much difference to my life. See also: jimrandomh’s post “How much thought”. If I were required to quantify “extremely unlikely” and then make a large bet at the resulting odds, I would give the question more thought and more research, and my estimate might well change in the process.)
Oh, and
5. I confess that I slightly overstated how unlikely I find the hypothesis, for the same reason as I emphasized that I don’t think it likely: I am quite sure that sadomasochists are generally and rightly fed up of having such hypotheses thrown at them by people who do find them likely (or, worse, just assume they’re right) and I wanted to minimize the risk of causing offence (both because I prefer not to offend people, and because when you offend someone you make it harder for them to respond rationally to what you say).
Fair enough! I wasn’t quite asking for an answer of that length—rather I thought you might be holding ciphergoth to a higher standard of evidence than you were yourself, which is what struck me as unfair. (Especially since you seemed to have the same opinion!) My apologies for calling forth such a long comment. Incidentally your opinion and the given evidence seems to coincide pretty much with my own epistemic state as well.
This is really well thought out, thanks. Comments like this (including part 5) make me optimistic that we are succeeding in creating a more rational community.
No, I say I think it’s extremely unlikely to be right, and I wouldn’t use the word “know” to describe my epistemic situation about this. (Else I wouldn’t have brought it up even as a hypothesis worth considering.)
Whether you say “think” or “know” doesn’t matter; if your probability estimate is tilted one way, then you must think you have some kind of evidence already in hand which tilts it that way. What is it?
Oh, sorry—I didn’t actually answer your question because I thought its point was not “I doubt that you have evidence to justify that opinion of yours” but “Since you presumably have evidence to justify that opinion of yours, what makes you think ciphergoth doesn’t?”, and since (1) what it takes to make my point is only that it be some way from certainty, and (2) ciphergoth has said he didn’t mean what he said as literally as I took it, it seemed like the question was moot. But, since it turns out that you actually want an answer:
1. What (relatively little) I’ve read that’s written by sadomasochists and that seems pertinent seems to point the other way. (For instance, I’m pretty sure I’ve read things by sadomasochists that seem to indicate that at least some of them have plenty of fun sometimes having non-sadomasochistic sex.)
2. Notice that for that hypothesis to be right, it’s necessary that (at least for sadomasochists) sadomasochistic practices do in fact add something extra that enhances sex. So either (a) just about everyone finds, or would find if they tried it, that S&M makes sex better—which doesn’t appear to me to be likely—or (b) the hypothesis in it’s “what distinguishes sadomasochists is not X but Y” form is wrong, because in fact sadomasochists distinctively have property X too even if they also have Y.
3. There are rather a lot of sadomasochists. So, if the hypothesis is correct, either (a) there are an awful lot of people who lack the ability to enjoy sex “normally” (I hope it’s clear that I have no normative intentions here), or (b) almost everyone finds, or would find, that S&M makes sex better, or (c) there’s a substantial correlation between lacking the ability to enjoy sex “normally” and finding that S&M makes sex better. All three options seem improbable.
4. Gut feeling. (Which I shouldn’t, and don’t, trust very much; but I don’t mind deferring some of my probability estimation to my gut in cases where the probabilities don’t actually make much difference to my life. See also: jimrandomh’s post “How much thought”. If I were required to quantify “extremely unlikely” and then make a large bet at the resulting odds, I would give the question more thought and more research, and my estimate might well change in the process.)
Oh, and
5. I confess that I slightly overstated how unlikely I find the hypothesis, for the same reason as I emphasized that I don’t think it likely: I am quite sure that sadomasochists are generally and rightly fed up of having such hypotheses thrown at them by people who do find them likely (or, worse, just assume they’re right) and I wanted to minimize the risk of causing offence (both because I prefer not to offend people, and because when you offend someone you make it harder for them to respond rationally to what you say).
Fair enough! I wasn’t quite asking for an answer of that length—rather I thought you might be holding ciphergoth to a higher standard of evidence than you were yourself, which is what struck me as unfair. (Especially since you seemed to have the same opinion!) My apologies for calling forth such a long comment. Incidentally your opinion and the given evidence seems to coincide pretty much with my own epistemic state as well.
This is really well thought out, thanks. Comments like this (including part 5) make me optimistic that we are succeeding in creating a more rational community.