I had a distinctly probabilistic experience at a doctor’s office today.
Condition X has a “gold standard” way to diagnose it (my doctor described it as being almost 100%) but is very expensive (time, effort, and money). It is also not feasible while everyone is staying at home.
However, at the end of the visit, I had given him enough information to make a “clinical” diagnoses (from a statistically & clinically validated questionnaire, descriptions of alternative explanations that have been ruled out, etc) and start treating it.
In hindsight, I can see the probability mass clumping together over the years until there is a pile on X.
I’m thankful to Less Wrong-style thinking for making me comfortable enough with uncertainty to accept this outcome . The doctor may not have pulled out a calculator but this feels like “shut up and multiply” & “make beliefs pay rent”.
I had a distinctly probabilistic experience at a doctor’s office today.
Condition X has a “gold standard” way to diagnose it (my doctor described it as being almost 100%) but is very expensive (time, effort, and money). It is also not feasible while everyone is staying at home.
However, at the end of the visit, I had given him enough information to make a “clinical” diagnoses (from a statistically & clinically validated questionnaire, descriptions of alternative explanations that have been ruled out, etc) and start treating it.
In hindsight, I can see the probability mass clumping together over the years until there is a pile on X.
I’m thankful to Less Wrong-style thinking for making me comfortable enough with uncertainty to accept this outcome . The doctor may not have pulled out a calculator but this feels like “shut up and multiply” & “make beliefs pay rent”.