Yeah, I think this is right. It seems like the whole problem arises from ignoring the copies of you who see “X is false.” If your prior on X is 0.5, then really the behavior of the clones that see “X is false” should be exactly analogous to yours, and if you’re going to be a clone-altruist you should care about all the clones of you whose behavior and outcomes you can easily predict.
I should also point out that this whole setup assumes that there are 0.99N clones who see one calculator output and 0.01N clones who see the opposite, but that’s really going to depend on what exact type of multiverse you’re considering (quantum vs. inflationary vs. something else) and what type of randomness is injected into the calculator (classical or quantum). But if you include both the “X is true” and “X is false” copies then I think it ends up not mattering.
Yeah, I think this is right. It seems like the whole problem arises from ignoring the copies of you who see “X is false.” If your prior on X is 0.5, then really the behavior of the clones that see “X is false” should be exactly analogous to yours, and if you’re going to be a clone-altruist you should care about all the clones of you whose behavior and outcomes you can easily predict.
I should also point out that this whole setup assumes that there are 0.99N clones who see one calculator output and 0.01N clones who see the opposite, but that’s really going to depend on what exact type of multiverse you’re considering (quantum vs. inflationary vs. something else) and what type of randomness is injected into the calculator (classical or quantum). But if you include both the “X is true” and “X is false” copies then I think it ends up not mattering.