I don’t think what you’re saying makes sense in general. For one thing, you’re assuming (as does the model in the post) that non-ravens being black is anti-correlated with all ravens being black. Maybe more interestingly, you’re assuming something about the process that presented you with a green apple. If the process is “look for a non-black object”, then yeah, we’ve probably gotten evidence in favor of all ravens are black—this corresponds to “trying and failing to disprove the hypothesis”. If the process is “look for a non-raven object” or just “look for an object”, then we’ve probably gotten very little evidence about ravens, and the direction of the evidence depends on our prior.
I don’t think what you’re saying makes sense in general. For one thing, you’re assuming (as does the model in the post) that non-ravens being black is anti-correlated with all ravens being black. Maybe more interestingly, you’re assuming something about the process that presented you with a green apple. If the process is “look for a non-black object”, then yeah, we’ve probably gotten evidence in favor of all ravens are black—this corresponds to “trying and failing to disprove the hypothesis”. If the process is “look for a non-raven object” or just “look for an object”, then we’ve probably gotten very little evidence about ravens, and the direction of the evidence depends on our prior.