Many years ago, I was repeatedly amused when reading texts that talked about rare “black swan” events. Where I lived there were hundreds of swans living on the river, and every single one was black.
Getting back to the original point: a uniform distribution is superficially the simplest model, so should be associated with the lowest complexity penalty. However after gathering broader evidence, you see that this doesn’t hold for anything else, so why should you expect it to hold for ravens?
Especially once you get down into gears-level models like inheritance, one should already expect that if there are both black ravens and white ravens, they are more likely to be geographically separated than intermingled.
Many years ago, I was repeatedly amused when reading texts that talked about rare “black swan” events. Where I lived there were hundreds of swans living on the river, and every single one was black.
Getting back to the original point: a uniform distribution is superficially the simplest model, so should be associated with the lowest complexity penalty. However after gathering broader evidence, you see that this doesn’t hold for anything else, so why should you expect it to hold for ravens?
Especially once you get down into gears-level models like inheritance, one should already expect that if there are both black ravens and white ravens, they are more likely to be geographically separated than intermingled.