I wonder if the mode of the distribution on Figure 4 (which is at about 2027 on this April 2023 figure and is continuing to shift left on the Metaculus question page) has a straightforward statistical interpretation. This mode is considerably to the left of the median and tends to be near the “lower 25%” mark.
Is it really the case that 2026-2028 are effectively most popular predictions in some sense, or is it an artefact of how this Metaculus page processes the data?
I wonder if the mode of the distribution on Figure 4 (which is at about 2027 on this April 2023 figure and is continuing to shift left on the Metaculus question page) has a straightforward statistical interpretation. This mode is considerably to the left of the median and tends to be near the “lower 25%” mark.
Is it really the case that 2026-2028 are effectively most popular predictions in some sense, or is it an artefact of how this Metaculus page processes the data?