Funny, I had exactly the same thought and was just considering writing a short post on it. So I agree and I do think it’s a very relevant model update. Some people probably already updated before. I also agree though with your second point about Auto-GPT and similar peripherals. So it looks like we’re in a not-too-fast take-off with humans pretty solidly in the loop for now?
As long as there’s no autonomous self-improvement of the core model, maybe an existential event could look like this: GPT-X gets trained and released, open sourcers build unsafe peripherals around it, and one of these peripherals turns out to be sufficiently capable (perhaps by self-improving its peripheral capabilities) to take over the world. Or: GPT-X itself turns out to be powerful enough to take over the world and it does, without self-improvement, just after training.
I’m curious whether in the medium term, AI progress is talent-constrained (intelligence important, self-improvement important) or compute/data-constrained (AI doesn’t add much, because intelligence doesn’t add much, therefore no self-improvement).
Funny, I had exactly the same thought and was just considering writing a short post on it. So I agree and I do think it’s a very relevant model update. Some people probably already updated before. I also agree though with your second point about Auto-GPT and similar peripherals. So it looks like we’re in a not-too-fast take-off with humans pretty solidly in the loop for now?
As long as there’s no autonomous self-improvement of the core model, maybe an existential event could look like this: GPT-X gets trained and released, open sourcers build unsafe peripherals around it, and one of these peripherals turns out to be sufficiently capable (perhaps by self-improving its peripheral capabilities) to take over the world. Or: GPT-X itself turns out to be powerful enough to take over the world and it does, without self-improvement, just after training.
I’m curious whether in the medium term, AI progress is talent-constrained (intelligence important, self-improvement important) or compute/data-constrained (AI doesn’t add much, because intelligence doesn’t add much, therefore no self-improvement).