It seems you consider previous AI booms to be a useful reference class for today’s progress in AI.
Suppose we will learn that the fraction of global GDP that currently goes into AI research is at least X times higher than in any previous AI boom. What is roughly the smallest X for which you’ll change your mind (i.e. no longer consider previous AI booms to be a useful reference class for today’s progress in AI)?
I’d also want to know that ratio X for each of the previous booms. There isn’t a discrete threshold, because analogies go on a continuum from more to less relevant. An unusually high X would be noteworthy and relevant, but not make prior analogies irrelevant.
It seems you consider previous AI booms to be a useful reference class for today’s progress in AI.
Suppose we will learn that the fraction of global GDP that currently goes into AI research is at least X times higher than in any previous AI boom. What is roughly the smallest X for which you’ll change your mind (i.e. no longer consider previous AI booms to be a useful reference class for today’s progress in AI)?
[EDIT: added “at least”]
I’d also want to know that ratio X for each of the previous booms. There isn’t a discrete threshold, because analogies go on a continuum from more to less relevant. An unusually high X would be noteworthy and relevant, but not make prior analogies irrelevant.