Yeah, I’ve seen some posts trying to make similar “lockdown goes too far” arguments (including this one on the SSC Tumblr) that seem to be comparing life with COVID-19 mitigation to normal 2019 life or to that plus some chance of getting sick. Aside from understating the potential for long-term consequences, I think there’s a trend in those dollar-cost estimates towards significantly underestimating the negative effects of unmitigated pandemic spread beyond the effect on one’s personal health.
(Not that I expect that you disagree with this, but it stands out to me that “let it happen modulo the most vulnerable” is already begging the question. I’d expect if that were driving public policy that the “modulo the most vulnerable” part largely wouldn’t happen. It’s hard to protect any particular group from infectious disease when it’s widespread in the general population.)
Yeah, I’ve seen some posts trying to make similar “lockdown goes too far” arguments (including this one on the SSC Tumblr) that seem to be comparing life with COVID-19 mitigation to normal 2019 life or to that plus some chance of getting sick. Aside from understating the potential for long-term consequences, I think there’s a trend in those dollar-cost estimates towards significantly underestimating the negative effects of unmitigated pandemic spread beyond the effect on one’s personal health.
(Not that I expect that you disagree with this, but it stands out to me that “let it happen modulo the most vulnerable” is already begging the question. I’d expect if that were driving public policy that the “modulo the most vulnerable” part largely wouldn’t happen. It’s hard to protect any particular group from infectious disease when it’s widespread in the general population.)