Couple other thoughts (cause this is fascinating, thanks!)
--The activity of grocery store shopping could be usefully expanded to shopping in any indoor store. Seems like all stores would be about the same level of riskiness if you control for number of people nearby (unless there are grocery-store-specific concerns?)
--The bar/restaurant distinction, and specifically rating bars as much higher risk than restaurants, is not convincing. I’ve heard people make this claim before but without explaining why. They might be thinking that going to a bar involves 1) more crowds, 2) more likely sitting at the bar, or 3) heavy drinking that clouds judgment. But while all of those things *sometimes* occur in bars, they don’t always, and they very often occur in restaurants too. (Plausibly people drink on average more in bars, but that’s not enough to warrant a dramatic increase in risk.) I suspect some of this is coming from people who either are unfamiliar with bars or have a certain Puritanical prejudice against drinking, leading them to think of bar-going as “more optional” than restaurant dining and therefore more condemnable. Obviously, both activities are optional, and there’s no reason to judge the bar-goer more harshly than the diner.
Anyway, your numbers should be revised to reflect the reality that the key risk factors for a dining establishment are indoor vs. outdoor, and crowded vs. spaced. The type of liquor license the place has doesn’t matter.
--This one is less feedback for the developers and more thinking out loud. A few people, like OP, are still on very high voluntary lockdown levels even now that almost every place has reopened. A few people, on the other hand, never really changed their habits that much because of COVID, or only did so when forced. The vast majority I expect are people who made significant sacrifices during the first month or two or three, but started to move back in the direction of a normal life when it became obvious that this pandemic was going to last a while. I wonder about the psychological effects it will have for the hardcore few to see groups 2 and 3 doing all sorts of things that the hardcore won’t let themselves do. Just sitting at home and watching quasi-normal life going on around them, while they shut themselves out and self-flagellate about every grocery store trip. I’m not criticizing—but, guys, be careful of your mental health. If it makes you happy to track the risk metrics this closely, do it, but if it’s making you anxious and amplifying tendencies towards scrupulosity, you don’t have to do it!
“I’ve heard people make this claim before but without explaining why. [...] the key risk factors for a dining establishment are indoor vs. outdoor, and crowded vs. spaced. The type of liquor license the place has doesn’t matter.”
I think you’re misunderstanding how the calculator works. All the saved scenarios do is fill in the parameters below. The only substantial difference between “restaurant” and “bar” is that we assume bars are places people speak loudly. That’s all. If the bar you have in mind isn’t like that, just change the parameters.
I suggest clarifying in the calculator how people are supposed to use the “scenarios” versus Step 2 or Step 3. Also, you suggest that the only difference between restaurant and bar in your model is volume of talking, but that doesn’t seem to fit the result when I pick Step 2 and Step 3--the bar scenario gives me 10,000 microcovids, but the indoor place with loud talking option is only 9000. Also, why do you think all bars are indoor and involve loud talking? Weird assumption. Some bars are very quiet and empty, lots have outdoor seating nowadays.
Overall, I think you guys haven’t quite figured out what your intended audience is. If you want to reach the general public, you’ll need an easy to use calculator that does not smuggle in a lot of doubtful assumptions. Yeah, I understand you can download the spreadsheet and customize, but that option is for the nerds.
I think you’re reading more into the bar thing than is intended. It’s not meant to be a strong statement about all bars, it’s just one of a list of examples to give you a sense of what different parameters look like.
I do think it’d be a bit of an improvement to make the bar dropdown more specific (ie. “Go to a loud, indoor bar”), but that feels more like a slight tweak than a major adjustment to target audience.
Selecting the scenario is duplicative of Steps 2 and 3. Should I skip those if I pick a scenario? Instructions are not clear.
I also think you should enable people to choose higher than average risk tolerance.
Couple other thoughts (cause this is fascinating, thanks!)
--The activity of grocery store shopping could be usefully expanded to shopping in any indoor store. Seems like all stores would be about the same level of riskiness if you control for number of people nearby (unless there are grocery-store-specific concerns?)
--The bar/restaurant distinction, and specifically rating bars as much higher risk than restaurants, is not convincing. I’ve heard people make this claim before but without explaining why. They might be thinking that going to a bar involves 1) more crowds, 2) more likely sitting at the bar, or 3) heavy drinking that clouds judgment. But while all of those things *sometimes* occur in bars, they don’t always, and they very often occur in restaurants too. (Plausibly people drink on average more in bars, but that’s not enough to warrant a dramatic increase in risk.) I suspect some of this is coming from people who either are unfamiliar with bars or have a certain Puritanical prejudice against drinking, leading them to think of bar-going as “more optional” than restaurant dining and therefore more condemnable. Obviously, both activities are optional, and there’s no reason to judge the bar-goer more harshly than the diner.
Anyway, your numbers should be revised to reflect the reality that the key risk factors for a dining establishment are indoor vs. outdoor, and crowded vs. spaced. The type of liquor license the place has doesn’t matter.
--This one is less feedback for the developers and more thinking out loud. A few people, like OP, are still on very high voluntary lockdown levels even now that almost every place has reopened. A few people, on the other hand, never really changed their habits that much because of COVID, or only did so when forced. The vast majority I expect are people who made significant sacrifices during the first month or two or three, but started to move back in the direction of a normal life when it became obvious that this pandemic was going to last a while. I wonder about the psychological effects it will have for the hardcore few to see groups 2 and 3 doing all sorts of things that the hardcore won’t let themselves do. Just sitting at home and watching quasi-normal life going on around them, while they shut themselves out and self-flagellate about every grocery store trip. I’m not criticizing—but, guys, be careful of your mental health. If it makes you happy to track the risk metrics this closely, do it, but if it’s making you anxious and amplifying tendencies towards scrupulosity, you don’t have to do it!
“I’ve heard people make this claim before but without explaining why. [...] the key risk factors for a dining establishment are indoor vs. outdoor, and crowded vs. spaced. The type of liquor license the place has doesn’t matter.”
I think you’re misunderstanding how the calculator works. All the saved scenarios do is fill in the parameters below. The only substantial difference between “restaurant” and “bar” is that we assume bars are places people speak loudly. That’s all. If the bar you have in mind isn’t like that, just change the parameters.
I suggest clarifying in the calculator how people are supposed to use the “scenarios” versus Step 2 or Step 3. Also, you suggest that the only difference between restaurant and bar in your model is volume of talking, but that doesn’t seem to fit the result when I pick Step 2 and Step 3--the bar scenario gives me 10,000 microcovids, but the indoor place with loud talking option is only 9000. Also, why do you think all bars are indoor and involve loud talking? Weird assumption. Some bars are very quiet and empty, lots have outdoor seating nowadays.
Overall, I think you guys haven’t quite figured out what your intended audience is. If you want to reach the general public, you’ll need an easy to use calculator that does not smuggle in a lot of doubtful assumptions. Yeah, I understand you can download the spreadsheet and customize, but that option is for the nerds.
I think you’re reading more into the bar thing than is intended. It’s not meant to be a strong statement about all bars, it’s just one of a list of examples to give you a sense of what different parameters look like.
I do think it’d be a bit of an improvement to make the bar dropdown more specific (ie. “Go to a loud, indoor bar”), but that feels more like a slight tweak than a major adjustment to target audience.