One way to bound the risk of long term consequences is to assume the long term consequences will be less severe than the infection itself. So if 1% of people in their 20′s experience reduced lung capacity during infection, you can assume that less than 1% will have permanently reduced lung capacity. I have never heard of a disease which was worse after you recover than before.
I suspect that some people are hesitant to discuss the rate of long term consequences for young covid patients for fear of encouraging people not to social distance. But then the cost is a loss of trust between people and the information provider.
Interesting. The study discusses fatigue. Do we know if the fatigue is caused by reduced lung capacity or by the hormones/neuro stuff our body does to conserve energy while sick. If reduced lung capacity is a big part of that 1⁄5 I would update upward on permanent lung capacity rate.
Sadly nothing useful. As mentioned here (https://www.microcovid.org/paper/2-riskiness#fn6) we think it’s not higher than 10%, but we haven’t found anything to bound it further.
One way to bound the risk of long term consequences is to assume the long term consequences will be less severe than the infection itself. So if 1% of people in their 20′s experience reduced lung capacity during infection, you can assume that less than 1% will have permanently reduced lung capacity. I have never heard of a disease which was worse after you recover than before.
I suspect that some people are hesitant to discuss the rate of long term consequences for young covid patients for fear of encouraging people not to social distance. But then the cost is a loss of trust between people and the information provider.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6930e1.htm found that ~1 in 5 of 18-34 year olds with no underlying health conditions had symptoms 3 weeks later (telephone survey of people who’d been symptomatic and had a positive test).
Other discussion in comments of https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ahYxBHLmG7TiGDqxG/do-we-have-updated-data-about-the-risk-of-permanent-chronic
Interesting. The study discusses fatigue. Do we know if the fatigue is caused by reduced lung capacity or by the hormones/neuro stuff our body does to conserve energy while sick. If reduced lung capacity is a big part of that 1⁄5 I would update upward on permanent lung capacity rate.